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Joe’s Weather Blog: More soaking rainfall on the way (MON-3/27)

Good afternoon…cloudy and gray out there with some leftover drizzle around parts of the area early this afternoon. Another solid 1/4″-3/4″+ fell overnight around the area with some totals of 1.5-2″ up into NW Jefferson Co, KS. we’re not done yet though as another soaker rain is heading into the area late Tuesday night>early THU. Some areas may get 1.5″+ from that next system as the parade of storms continues.


Forecast:

Tonight: Cloudy with steady temperatures in the 40s

Tuesday: Mainly cloudy with some thin spots….highs in the 55-60° range

Wednesday: Rain and some thunderstorm activity. Locally heavy rain is possible with highs around 50°

Thursday: More rain at times…then cloudy with highs 50-55°


Discussion:

Getting awfully wet out there now…rainfall has been mostly plentiful although there have been a few areas not doing as well with the overnight rains compared to others…the doppler estimates are pretty healthy though for a good part of the area with the exception of NE and east of KC proper.

That brings many areas in the metro close to 1/2″-1 1/2″ of rain since this past Friday. Another storm coming on Wednesday into Thursday may double those totals.

Today’s system has wrapped up across central MO as it moves towards the east. The mid-week system is moving through the western part of the country now and will be moving into the Plains later WED and slowly moving eastbound from there.

In the images above you can see the water vapor in the atmosphere. Notice that we have drier air coming in (overall) BUT there is still a lot of low level moisture out there as seen by the latest visible satellite picture.

That low level moisture goes west of central KS this afternoon. With the winds below 10,000 feet being very light (under 20 MPH) there is really nothing aside from the late March sunshine to stir that stagnant moisture around. As a result we won’t get much sunshine out there today or tomorrow aside from some small breaks or thin spots (if that).

The next system, out across the western part of the country will be dropping into the NM area later tomorrow. You can see it nicely on the 500 mb map or about 18,000 feet up in the air. Look for the “closed” low.

From there is creeps towards the ENE…later WED it’s in the western Plains.

and on Thursday its near the KC area.

Note as well the next system coming through the PAC NW part of the country. That may well affect us over the weekend.

I’m getting ahead of myself. The mid week system will be a slow mover…slow moving storms with abundant atmospheric moisture are typically big rain producers and the model data is strongly suggestive of at least 1″ of widespread rain with some areas doubling that, if not doing even better.

The model forecasts for total rain are rather varied…note the contrast between the NAM and the GFS through later Thursday. Use the slider bar to go right (NAM forecast) or left (GFS forecast). In my opinion the NAM is suffering from some sort of feedback issue…hence it’s rather bombastic rain totals through the whole Plains area.

I think a pretty solid 1″ is likely with some areas near or over 2″ from this slow moving system. Out towards central KS though amounts may be more generous than what the GFS indicates…perhaps more in the 1-3″ range potentially.

Our feature photo comes from Jennifer Thompson-Ellis of a sunrise over the Missouri River Bluffs and the MO River.

Joe

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2 comments

  • John T.

    Mr. Joe, Could you provide your expert guesstimate for conditions during the weekdays of April 17 – 21, next month please? Trying to plan outdoor activity from daylight to noon. Thank you

    • Joe Lauria

      Boy…it’s a bit early for that…my thinking would be a chance of rain somewhere in that span…typical for April but perhaps trending on the milder side of things. Average by then is upper 60s for highs and mid 40s for lows.