Joe’s Weather Blog: Once again the rains are coming (SAT-4/1)

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Another blah look to the skies today with a low gray overcast and a chilly feel to the air outside this afternoon. Readings are in the 40s as I type this and the skies are once again cloudy. There is a storm that will be impacting the area tomorrow morning so expect a pretty good chance of some rain to move on through to start our Sunday. More rain is possible Monday and Tuesday evening/night>Wednesday. Beyond that though there should be a break in the weather for a few days.


Forecast:

Tonight: Cloudy with rain arriving before daybreak. Lows in the 40s

Sunday: Rainy AM then drier in the afternoon. Highs in the 50s

Monday: Cloudy with showers likely, especially from KC southeastwards. Highs in the 50s


Discussion:

Thought Id start with this…

According to the GFS…I may have sent that tweet out prematurely…although since we’re talking about the GFS at this range…I like my chances…my this was chuckle worthy this morning when I saw the model run.

Note the date…April 12th

Whatever…

Meanwhile this is what we’re living with again today…

From a temperature standpoint…we’re starting the month off chilly…readings are in the 40s today (so far) after finishing the month of March just shy of 4┬░ above average. It’s been a warm year thus far…

So far this year…it’s the 5th warmest start through the 1st 3 months of the year. Interestingly…there are 4 other years JAN>MAR starts this century in the Top 25

As far as the rain goes…The upper level storm across the SW part of the country is still on track. It will split into a few pieces…with the main core passing┬áinto TX then curling up into MO

Note how the NAM model below handles this…IF this were a different season in a different time with different air masses in play…that would actually be a favorable snow track for us…as would next system on Tuesday. The charts below are the 500 mb level…about 18,000 feet up. The red areas are areas of vorticity…which causes lifting in the air. The blue areas are where the air is usually sinking.

Sunday’s rain should be in the 1/4″>3/4″ average range…

Monday’s rain should be more in the 1/10″>1/2″ range

Tuesday>Wednesday rain may be more in the 3/4″-1 1/2″ range

The rain tomorrow will again leave a trail of moisture in the area and that means more clouds on Monday during the 1st part of the day BUT we may break through for a few hours of sunshine later Monday (maybe)

Then we wait for the next storm later Tuesday into Wednesday. More on that tomorrow.

Our feature photo comes from Kim Gerba Scott..taken by her son of a double rainbow from a few days ago!

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