Joe’s Weather Blog: Active week of weather (SUN-4/16)

Happy Easter. Many areas enjoying some sunshine…while there are still a few renegade showers running around and hanging around as well. Sort of a weird weather day out there with cooler temperatures compared to yesterday when highs were into the lower 80s. Our monthly temperatures is running almost 5.5° above average and we’re over 2″ above average when it comes to rain. Warm and wet would describe April so far…and that may continue through the end of the week as well.


Forecast:

Tonight: More showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms are possible. Not 100% coverage though. Temperatures in the 50s

Monday: Becoming partly cloudy and pleasant with highs near 70°

Tuesday: Warmer and windy with highs 75-80°


Discussion:

Parts of the area received over 2-3″ of rain last night. The heaviest was out towards Leavenworth/Jefferson/Jackson Co KS. Although Johnson Co KS did well with many areas over 1″. That’s a good soaker! Doppler estimites show the heaviest areas of rain through noon today.

Notice the areas of RED…that shows at least 2″ of rain estimated by radar. Another area that got some big rains was from around the Ft Scott>Nevada area.

Yesterday was an interesting day. More or less the storms did what we expected around the KC area. We did avoid the severe weather…this favored NE KS and NW MO…up towards the IA border…check out what happened.

There were several reports of funnels and brief touchdowns up there especially in Atchison Co. Here are the severe weather reports received…

H =Hail… T=Tornado

Today’s risk is more confined towards the southern Plains

As far as our rain chances this evening…it’s sort of another conundrum. Model data is somewhat aggressive with this…as the latest HRRR model shows.

The issue is I’m having a tough time finding out “why” it should rain. There isn’t great lift. I was wondering about some sort of low level jet…and that doesn’t really appear to be a factor tonight. There isn’t any real “lift” moving this way although there will be pockets of mid level lift towards the west of the area. That might be enough to at least get some scattered activity going and with the winds aloft being pretty much west>east…what forms out there would drift towards the State Line area. Eventually the lift overnight moves towards SE KS and SW MO and that’s where the better rains may end up going.

We are getting some nice breaks in the clouds…and temperatures are warming up a bit. we’re in the mid 60s as I type this blog today…but the temperature at which things get more unstable for the day is closer to 80° and we won’t get there. So again a bit of a conundrum as far as rain chances go.

Tomorrow and most of Tuesday appears OK. A question remains about Tuesday night but the better storm chances appear to be later Wednesday into Wednesday night as a cold front moves towards the area from the NW. The timing of the front appears to be mid to late evening Wednesday. That might mean more of the same for storms…stronger to potentially severe NW of KC…then some weakening as they come towards the KC metro area. No two situations are exactly the same though so I don’t want to have a direct parallel to last night.

So we’ll watch Wednesday night for the next chance of storminess with the potential of some severe weather in the region.

There is still another bigger system towards the FRI>SAT that may create more widespread and heavier rains. Model guidance from last night (EURO) and today (GFS) both still suggest the potential of well over 2″ of rain in that time frame. More on that potential as the week moves along. It appears most likely that there won’t be severe weather with that since the best heating will be well south of the area (at least from this far out). Actually there are strong signals that Saturday may be rather chilly in the area with temperatures in the 40s and rainy conditions.

One other note…yesterday I wrote about the tornado in Dimmett, TX…that ended up being rated as an EF3 with peak winds of 140 MPH.

Our feature photo today comes from Telisa Sanders Gilmore of a pretty sunset with towering clouds up in Highland, KS

Joe

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1 Comment

  • Sasha Blanchard

    Any chance you could comment on the overflights of aircraft that spray toxic chemicals and hazardous biological elements on us? Known to many as Operation Cloverleaf. Are you in favor of these programs?