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Joe’s Weather Blog: Tracking the overnight storm chances (WED-4/19)

Good morning…breezy and mild to start the day in the KC region with some scattered showers across far N MO and NE KS. Overall the day will be windy and warm. A cold front will be moving into the region tonight and that will trigger storms…however it’s very late arrival towards the KC metro area may prevent KC from having to deal with much (if any) real severe weather…and that is OK with me and probably you too!

I’ve enclosed a poll question that would be helpful if you can answer it for me. I sometimes feel like I’m re-writing the same blog on occasion. By that I mean that when things are falling into place…all I’m doing sometimes is updating the blog with roughly the same information. What I’m curious about is how often you read the blog. IF you read it only when the weather is active…or a daily reader or a sometimes reader. This way I know how to cater the blogs a bit better.

So thanks for answering…it may be helpful to me down the road especially


Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy/windy/warm with highs 80-85°. Winds will be S/SW at 25-35 MPH

Tonight: Storms are possible in the KC area after 9PM…perhaps the most likely period is after 10PM towards 2AM or so. Storms will contain some locally heavy rain/some hail and maybe some wind gusts of 30-60 MPH. Widespread severe weather is not likely in the KC metro area. There will be better chances of stronger storms up towards the IA and NE border earlier in the evening. This may be similar to what happened this past Saturday night. Some areas may get very little rain.

Thursday: Not too bad with more PM sunshine and cooler weather. Highs in the 60s

Friday: Slow increase in clouds with scattered showers possible towards evening. Highs back to near 60°


Discussion:

Not exactly the greatest set-up tonight for severe weather locally in the KC region. There will be storms but with a somewhat delayed frontal passage and the fact that the storms may come hours after sunset when the instability in the atmosphere (locally) is waning…well I’m not jumping up and down screaming about severe storms. as I mentioned over the weekend there are similarities with this situation and what happened over the past weekend (Saturday night). Of course no two set-ups are exactly the same…but there are similarities.

With that said there is a “slight” risk of severe storms from the KC metro and northwards.

The cold front in question will be taking shape today as a surface low…now in the NW part of KS moves into IA. Attached to that low will be a cold front that will extend to the SW of the lows position this afternoon.

Ahead of the slow…strong south winds are moving through the Plains states. In the map above the dew points are in green…and we have lots of dew points in the 60s today from I-70 and points southwards.

We should have quite a bit of sunshine today as well heating things up as the visible satellite image will show (below)

It’s worth monitoring the lower clouds in OK this morning…IF they make it this far north…that may tend to reduce the instability a bit later on.

So the surface storm will be moving into IA later today. In reality though the surface low will be breaking into 2. One piece will consolidate down through OK and the other will zip into IA. This morning’s HRRR model run shows this idea towards 8PM tonight (via NEXLAB)

The cold front is located from west of Des Moines to south of Omaha to SE of Lincoln, NE towards the Dodge city region…still well NW of KC. Storms should fire near the front and then move towards the ENE. The warm front in the map above the satellite picture will, by then, by up north of the I-80 corridor in NE IA. The tornadic risk today is from roughly N MO into IA.

Even that map above…somewhat represents the ideas from what happened this past Saturday.

The cold front itself won’t get to KC till the wee hours of Thursday morning (similar to what happened this past weekend). So let’s show the short range model (the HRRR) and how it handles the storms later today. This graphic will auto-update through the day.

For the KC area proper…it will be worth monitoring but the longer we’re waiting for storms to arrive the tougher it’s going to be for them to maintain any severity. So odds are the storms will be strong close to where they actually form…and the right combination for that would be from SW IA to SE NE into NE KS and NW MO…near and north of 36 highway. Cold a few stragglers wonder farther south…sure..but it’s not a lock by any stretch…especially after 11PM.

Another system is due over the weekend…some rain with that…no severe weather. Friday night and Saturday AM may be wet…with the higher rain totals likely farther south of the KC metro area…towards southern MO and NE OK/AR.

That’s it for today…our feature photo comes from @TwistedSkiesWx … just beautiful out there this morning.

Joe

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