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Joe’s Weather Blog: Storm goes south…rain mostly goes with it (FRI-4/21)

A mostly cloudy morning out there today and sort of on the cool side. Temperatures dropped into the mid 40s to start the day and with the clouds around today it may be a struggle to get back to 60°. Rain will be falling well south of the region today as well. Not sure if any light showers will make it to the I-70 corridor though…doesn’t look too promising.


Forecast:

Today: Clouds and cool with highs near 60°. NE winds of 12-25 mph will make it feel cooler though

Tonight: Showers/sprinkles this far north towards the KC metro…better rains several counties south of KC. Lows in the 40s

Saturday: Leftover morning showers then clearing skies. Highs near 60°

Sunday: Nice with highs around 70°


Discussion:

Some areas are going to get some big time rains from this system…and there has already been a lot of rain in OK and parts of S MO and AR with it…and more is coming. Here in the KC metro area we are right on the northern fringe of this and the rain amounts look to be under 1/3″ for most. Farther south amounts may be over 3/4″. Here is a look at the regional radar showing the more persistent and steadier rains towards the south of KC

There is an upper level wave approaching Wichita as I type this blog this morning…there is rain spreading ENEwards from that wave. With drier air working into the area from the NE this morning a lot of that rain on the leading edge will get eroded and as a result our rain chances are rather iffy in KC for the day today.

Our best chance of rain will be tonight into daybreak Saturday as we get briefly into a bit of a comma-head (wraparound) part of one of the waves moving through the region. After daybreak Saturday the rain will start moving away and we should be dry from lunch Saturday through the rest of the weekend. Here is a look at local radar from Pleasant Hill, MO

The reason for the near miss for the better rains is that most of the energy and the waves will be passing too far south of KC. The water vapor loop (enhances the moisture in the atmosphere) sort of shows this. Notice how everything seems more focused towards the KS/OK border…with the activity mostly moving from the west to the east…we’re just not in the right spot.

Even the border of OK/TX is too far south…so this is a I-44 rain event mostly…north of there though…a good rain has fallen so far…via the OK Mesonet

Our bigger rains will probably come later next week…along with the severe weather risks in the Plains. More on that next week though.

Our feature photo comes from Todd A Surprise who always takes some great pictures and sends them in via FB to Joe Lauria FOX 4 Meteorologist

Joe

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