Joe’s Weather Blog: Storm risks + cold rains ahead (TUE-4/25)

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Good morning…a lot of wind around the area yesterday as expected. Today will be pretty windy as well although the cloud cover that we have today may help knock down the worst of the gusts. Rain is possible tonight along with some thunderstorms…and Wednesday may be a good day to take a nap as colder air moves through the region…so overall we’re going to get wet for awhile with some more rain on tap later in the week.


Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds, breezy and mild with highs in the 70s

Tonight: Storms may develop and move through parts of the area (main focus would be from the metro southwards). There is a borderline chance of a severe storm…especially the farther S/SE you get away from KC. Lows tonight will be in the 50s but will continue to drop tomorrow as the day moves along.

Wednesday: Mainly cloudy with a few showers possible in the AM…chilly/bustery with highs around 50°

Thursday: Partly sunny and cool with highs around 60°


Discussion:

There is going to be quite a bit to talk about over the next 5-10 days I think. At least over the next 5 days though, after today, much cooler weather may be the main theme along with the rain chances.

This morning’s weather map shows a rather strong cold front to our west. Temperatures in the western Plains are in the 30s/40s this morning and that colder weather will start moving into the area overnight into Wednesday. Ahead of the front the winds are more from the south…and we’re warmer. Also note the dew points..only in the 50s and even the dew points south of here aren’t really that great…so the surface moisture isn’t exactly “thick” for tonight’s set-up.

7AM surface map

So the way this is going to work today is that we’ll warm up into the 70s…get somewhat unstable and wait on the front. We will be capped though…and we’ll have to await the front to move into that warm air to potentially get something going. This would happen locally between 8PM-12AM tonight. some of our short range models bring our dew points to 60-65° later today…we’ll see just how how those dew points can get…right now the closest 60°+ dew point is down towards the Austin, TX region…with the strong surface winds though…it may be able to get close to here. (11AM NOTE: I’m really wondering just how much moisture will get here in time for the front this evening…dew points are struggling to come up so far today…I wonder IF the models are overestimating the surface moisture and the instability. This would reduce the storms intensity and coverage maybe)

As the front moves into the thicker air and the instability…storms should form somewhere evening nearby (moisture is a question though in my mind)…and move towards the ENE. The SPC has us in a “slight” risk for severe weather.

You can see, at least with the morning update…that risk gets to KC and stops…the risk is more concentrated the farther south you get away from KC.

The main concerns would be some hail and maybe a gusty wind. Since the storms will be forming nearby…they may be a little stronger. As you may know when these fronts have come by this year…the storms are a bit stronger within couple of hours after forming, then congeal into a line. Lately that process has been well NW/W of the KC area…today it may happen closer to the I-35 corridor so the storms may be a bit stronger closer to the area, especially on the MO side and SE KS.

Temperatures will quickly tumble form the 70s>60s>50s towards later tonight…and keep trending down into Wednesday morning. As a matter of fact look at the forecast off the hi-res NAM for WED AM…for 7AM Wednesday morning…brrrrr!

Tomorrow will feature lots of clouds and chilly/blustery conditions…temperatures may struggle to 50° but the new model data now reduces the rain locally to just a few AM showers…

Overall rainfall tallies will vary…lighter amounts north of the Metro…potentially more convective rains from KC southwards so the amounts will vary from about 1/10″-1/2+” IF you get into the thunderstorms overnight. Rain amounts Wednesday should be under 1/10″ for most areas around KC with higher totals SE of the KC metro

We could use a bit of a drink of water from Mother Nature…noticed that the immediate top part of the ground was a bit dry when I was mowing yesterday.

Thursday should be OK.

The front coming through tonight, as I mentioned in the weekend blog was an important one…in terms of where it’s final resting place would be. Models over the weekend varied on it’s location…from down towards the I-44 region to closer to the KC area…as we get closer to the end of the week…odds are favoring a more southwards location…towards S MO. The front on Friday may to work northwards closer to us…but then it will get shoved farther south again on Saturday. That means that after some potential showers later Thursday evening…the real rains will come later Friday night into Saturday for the area…and the heaviest will be more south of here. We should get a decent soaker locally…but the bigger flooding threat may be more confined towards southern MO.

What’s sort of interesting is that a whole upper level storm is going to be carved out in the western Plains over the weekend and slowly move through the region on Sunday. ON Sunday with that upper level low in the area…and granted this may not play out like this…but some modelling does have a rather cold atmosphere around the area…as a matter of fact the EURO model has the near 32° only a few thousand feet above us Sunday evening. This will be a cold/moist ( in terms of low clouds) storm later in the weekend. With this type of set-up there wouldn’t be any severe storms locally.

By the end of the weekend though we should have a decent 1-2″ of rain in the area…with some upside depending on the convective trends tonight and again on Friday.

We’ll get more into the late week scenario tomorrow…interesting storm system though for late April. It’s very possible parts of the Plains get some snow out of this…I don’t think that will happen in the KC area though.

Again the overarching themes are chillier than average temperatures from WED>SUN and wetter weather will be more in abundance…

That’s it for today…our feature photo comes from Kim Whitney Lane from Marshall, MO of a sunrise on the 21st.

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