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Joe’s Weather Blog: What a storm in the Plains! (SAT-4/29)

Good afternoon…what a miserable day in the KC region. Unless you like sleeping/napping to the rain (mission accomplished already thank you) it’s rainy/cold/blustery/thundery and probably some words that I can’t use today. A slow moving storm is responsible for this…and in the colder part of the storm in the western Plains it’s pouring down snow on top of trees that have all their leaves…sort of their version of the “October Surprise” snowstorm, expect it was expected. Power is going out out there as I type this due to downed lines. Down across southern MO it’s really starting to flood and it’s really coming down (rain wise) towards the I-44 corridor. It could be worse…


Forecast:

Tonight: There should be an occasional break in the rains this evening…but more is likely overnight into Sunday AM. Lows may actually creep to 50-55° Sunday morning.

Sunday: AM rain chances then the activity will become more scattered in the afternoon and more off/on. Temperatures may be around 55° for awhile towards mid-day but then start dropping again about 5-10° later in the afternoon.

Sunday night: Cloudy and colder with lows dropping into the 30s. No frost is expected

Monday: Clouds again…maybe a few light showers/sprinkles into lunch. Then some later afternoon breaks in the clouds. Blustery with west winds of 15-25 MPH. Highs in the around 50° or so.


Discussion:

Got the furnace going…got the sweatpants on…and I’m still cold. The sump pump though is working hard today in the basement (thank goodness for that). So far rain totals in the KC metro are averaging near 1 1/4″ since the rain began before daybreak. Areas farther north not as much. Here are the latest doppler estimates and the rains will keep coming for the rest of the afternoon. There is some thunderstorm activity mixed in there as well…

Notice to the south of the KC area…the heavier rains towards the I-44 corridor…here is the doppler estimates from the NWS in Springfield where significant flooding is ongoing as I type this.

The threat of flooding is the main concern for areas as far north as Sedalia/Clinton/Butler/Garnett. For areas farther south the threat is even greater.

Radar right now looks like this…

The following image is NOT from the SPC…it’s a graphic that shows the highest risk of flooding rains…

Pretty broad area from St Louis down I-44 towards E OK and most of NW AR.

In terms of totals…

6-10″ of rain in that region.

For the KC area…we should see 2-3″ of rain from this event through the weekend. Here are the latest watches/warnings.

Farther south…

Look at all the red…those are flash flood warnings.

The view from above is pretty spectacular of the blow up of storms overnight and this morning

Meanwhile in the western Plains and into Colorado…it’s snowing to beat the band right now.

 

Meanwhile in the TX Panhandle…

Got to say…this is impressive for the last couple of days of April.

There is some upside to these totals in isolated areas out there too!

From above the latest satellite pictures are impressive to look at…you can see the developing upper level storm in the SW part of the country.

In time that storm should start moving into the Plains states (tomorrow) and that will allow a “dry slot” to form and move towards the northeast and cut off the heavy rains in the KC area. So tomorrow afternoon as this occurs we should see more lighter rains and sprinkles dominate…again maybe not totally dry in the afternoon…but not a frog strangler like what we’re seeing now.

I should mention as well that there is a severe weather component (aside from the flooding rains to the south)…here is the afternoon outlook from the SPC

So this storm has everything going for it…amazing.

At the surface…we’ll be tracking a surface low moving from the I-44 corridor towards the north tonight. There is a lot of “noise” in there as the model tries to decipher what’s going on…but I think towards the end you get the idea.

In terms of rain and snow out west…this is what the model is thinking and this graphic should auto-update for you as new information is available.

Monday is sort of tricky because of the lingering clouds that may last into the afternoon affecting the temperatures. The more sunshine we get the warmer it will be…but it does look blustery out there even on Monday. It will be better on Tuesday.

OK…that’s it for today…I leave you with this…look closely.

Joe

 

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