Support Salvation Army Wildfire Relief

Joe’s Weather Blog: More heavy rain to the south of KC (TUE-5/2)

Good morning…well at least it’s a lot better than yesterday morning out there! That was awful but the sun is shining (for now) and the grass is growing. There’s been a lot of rain over the past month…many areas from KC southwards have had enough to last for a week or so…and after the next system moves through WED>THU a more substantial break is expected for about 5+ days…so there is drier weather ahead (and some rather nice weather for the weekend it appears).


Forecast:

Today: Sunny this morning with increasing clouds this afternoon. Highs well into the 60s

Tonight: Clouds will fill in and there may be some showers at some point overnight…mostly from the KC area southwards. Lows in the 40s

Wednesday: Rain likely from near the KC area and especially to the south of KC. Have an umbrella with you for the day. Northern MO will miss out on most, if not all, of this. Rains will be heaviest several counties south of KC through southern MO where another flash flood watch is in effect. Highs may struggle to get through the 50s

Thursday (School Day): We should be OK in the morning with temperatures in the 40s and 50s then during the afternoon variable clouds with an outside shot of a few showers (light) in the region, especially on the MO side. Highs 60-65°…so a bit on the cool side overall.


Discussion:

Well it’s no secret that things are rather soggy out there right now. The KC area saw between 2-4″ (some higher) rain totals over the weekend so we’re just now draining away that rain…but muddy conditions are out there for sure. Look at all the rain we’ve seen in the last 30 days…

You can clearly see that while it’s been soggy up towards the I-70 corridor…down towards the I-44 corridor…it’s really wet! There have been 15+” rain totals down across southern MO in the last month or so.

Locally…this is what it looks like.

You can see several counties to the south…wetter…especially down towards the 54 highway corridor into the Lakes region.

Unfortunately that’s where the next system will create the most rain again. Perhaps just a bit farther north…but pretty darn close.

Another wave will be moving into the Plains states today and strengthen. While it will look nothing like what happened over the past weekend in terms of the big spinning wheel of a storm…this one will be smaller. It won’t have 5-10″ of rain with it…but it could carry the potential of 1-3″ rains with it…and that will create more headaches in flooded areas to the south of the metro.

For that reason another Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the counties south of US 50 (mostly). This includes the Lake of the Ozarks area as well as Joplin and Springfield, MO. It does NOT include the KC metro area

There are numerous other warnings in effect from south of KC through AR…all of which are connected to some type of flooding concerns…

The wave of concern this morning is coming through the Rockies as I type this…it will “sharpen” (intensify” tonight and tomorrow and create a new surface storm that moves well south of the area again.

The NAM model shows this surface low developing down towards the I-40 corridor. This model will update automatically for you as new data is processed.

This wave may actually form into another upper level storm (briefly) very close to KC…so while the size of the overall storm will be smaller…it still may take on a rather impressive look on the satellite picture tomorrow. It really gets together off towards the St Louis area and points eastwards.

So as the wave starts getting stronger tonight…rain will develop and spread eastwards. This morning there are already some sprinkles developing out in KS…

The concern is how much rain will fall from this…considering it’s right on the heels of what happened this past weekend.

Our model data shows another potential 1″+ around the KC area with the higher totals south of KC. There should be a rather sharp northern cutoff to this rain…so we’ll see just how far north it gets. Here is a model comparison…use the slider bar to see the differences.

The difference is because of the positioning of the developing upper level wave near the KC area.. The GFS has this circulation more towards the southern MO while the NAM has this closer to I-70

The true development of that storm will be the key…farther south and the heaviest is more towards the Ozarks…a bit farther north and the KC area gets into it a bit more. Regardless, probably fair to say that 1/4″-1″ of rain is possible in KC with 1″+ rains possible a few counties south of here.

This upper level storm may leave a trail of chilly/moist air in the mid levels of the atmosphere in the area on Thursday. That’s noteworthy because as we warm up Thursday. into the 60s, the warm surface air will be topped by the colder air just above the surface…this will create clouds and perhaps a few very light showers/sprinkles somewhere in the region. So we may start with some sunshine then see clouds build up during the day. I’ll keep an eye on that for the School Day events. I think the morning should be dry though.

Beyond this system…and in looking towards the weekend…the atmosphere is going to get blocked up. An omega block will be developing. This happens when there is a cutoff low on each side and a ridge in the middle.

Here is a look at the flow pattern at around 18,000 feet. Notice the big dips east and west of the Plains…

It sort of looks like the Greek letter omega!

 

Hence the term “omega block”

These are slow patterns to break…and this one will hang around for a few days..as a result…and since we’re in the middle of that pattern (under a ridge) we get good weather mostly. That’s why we’re pretty optimistic about a warm and pleasant weekend.

Where the big “dips” the weather may be miserable…so the northeast through New England looks unpleasant (it could snow in some of the higher elevations in the northeast) and the SW parts of the US may have some rain and cooler than average weather. This is actually a VERY unusual look to the pattern for the SW part of the country during the month of May. Should there be showers with this system out there…the snow levels will be unusually low for May and some of the mountains around S CA may get snow above 5-6000 feet or so. A chilly (for them) few days is coming this weekend and early next week.

Oh and there is a horse called Thunder Snow racing in this weekend’s Kentucky Derby….I know who I’m pulling for!

Our feature photo comes from Paula Chung…showing the flooding in her hometown of Doniphan, MO

Joe

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s