Joe’s Weather Blog: All quiet till later next week (FRI-5/5)

A very pleasant morning out there today. Temperatures started in the lower 40s and are warming pretty quickly this morning. we should finish the day with highs in the 70s. Dry air will hang around all weekend meaning cool mornings and mild afternoons.

A big thank you to all 16,000 school kids and teachers who joined us for School Day At The K yesterday. The weather was perfect and we were thrilled to meet so many of you afterwards. We hope those who attended had fun and will join us again next year. A lot of first timers out there as well which was nice to see.


Forecast:

Today: Sunny and pleasant with high in the lower 70s

Tonight: clear and pleasant with lows in the 40s

Saturday: Sunny and mild with highs in the 70s

Sunday: Pleasant with highs in the 70s


Discussion:

Aside from monitoring some weak fronts, the pattern overall for the Plains is a quiet one for the next 5 days. Rainfall will be sparse at best…and while a weak front may slip through the area on Sunday, dropping temperatures a couple of degrees, that same front will retreat back northwards on Monday as a warm front. That may create some showers/storms in the morning Monday but odds right now favor that activity to be N/NE of the KC metro area. Something to watch though.

The weather pattern overall will be characterized by what we call an Omega Block early next week. I wrote about this in the last blog and this continues to evolve. This is a very quiet pattern for areas in the “ridge” part of the pattern…that would be the Plains region. On either side…where you see the big upper level storms…the weather can be rather unpleasant. The northeast in particular looks miserable next week. Take a look at the GFS forecast for later next Monday…notice where the 2 upper level storms are.

Where the is more moisture present along with a more ready source of cold air (the northeast and New England) the weather will NOT be nice. Cold and off and on rainy.

In the SW part of the country…where cold air is in tougher supply (yesterday it hit 100° in Phoenix, AZ) it will be cooler..and potentially a bit wetter in the desert area. Notice in the Phoenix area we go from over 100° today to the mid 70s early next week for highs with scattered storm chances.

In far northern AZ there will be snow chances in the higher elevations next week as well. This may be one of their last decent storms…until the monsoon season gets going in a couple of months…

You can see the developing storm off the western US…this will drop down into CA and “cutoff” from the main flow of air…and become the cutoff low in the chart above…

In time…towards the middle of next week it will gradually weaken and get kicked out into the Plains…bring the next rain chance towards the area. By then the grass will be looking for a nice drink of water after drying out for about a week or so.

We’ll get more into the specifics of that next Monday.

We’re coming into the wettest time of the year now…so it can be difficult to stay dry for a length of time. We average almost 1.5″ of rain/week…

This pattern is also a tranquil one for severe storms in the Plains…we’re had 7 reports of tornadoes this month…and granted we’re only 5 days in…but this is the most active month for tornadoes in the US…so it looks to be a slow start to the month though mid May it appears.

Our active early season though still has us ahead of average overall for tornadoes nationwide…

All this moisture has also been evident in looking at the new drought report that came out yesterday…aside from a few areas in the SE…most of the country really is drought free. Only 5% of the country has some form of drought…

So let’s enjoy the quiet weather for awhile…

Here is a picture from yesterday’s program…it was our hydrogen experiment…yup blowing things us as usual!

Joe

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s