Joe’s Weather Blog: Severe clear warning (SAT-5/6)
Another spectacular afternoon around the KC metro area as well as all of western MO and eastern KS. Our morning low was 50-55° with 40s in the outlying areas. As I type this blog we’re well into the 70s and we should make it to near 80° to finish off this great day. Sunday looks ideal as well before it gets warmer early next week.
Tonight: Clear and pleasant with lows 45-50°
Sunday: Sunny and warm with highs 75-80°
Monday: Warmer with partly cloudy skies. Windy as well with gusts to 30 MPH. Highs 80-85°
Tuesday: Partly cloudy and warm with highs into the 80s again. Less wind though
Satellite picture tells the Plains story today…spectacular!
Yesterday as well was so nice! I wanted to see how the “green-up” of the area is going so I used this picture to get an idea…
Looking good as far as that goes…and it’re really no wonder why…it’s been so wet for the last 5+ weeks around here. Now N MO hasn’t had as much as others…and the grass will need a nice drink towards mid-week for sure…but rain has certainly not been a problem locally.
At the surface a weak(!) wind shift has moved through the region…that’s why the winds are more from the north right now…although the “cooler” air above us…moving towards the area…isn’t really that cool. Take a look a the temperatures above us around 3000 feet or so…notice the wind direction and the temperature shading of the air moving towards the KC area
Just marginally cooler…so Sunday will be similar to today…maybe a 1-4° cooler afternoon high temperature.
Then on Monday the warmer air will come back into the area thanks to stronger SW winds.
If you’ve been following the blog for the last few days I’ve spent some time talking about the pattern for this weekend…it’s called an omega block.
I want to show you what this looks like…as we go up to about 18,000 feet or so and track the wind direction and speeds (contours)
The animation above is via windy.com.
You can see a lot of stuff here….one the almost always wavy pattern that exists across the hemisphere. 2) a big upper level storm off the coast of Europe and near the Azores…
There is also a developing upper level storm in the NE part of the country and in the SW part of the country. That shows up nicely in the animation above the water vapor loop.
The pattern in the USA…with the low in the northeast (aloft) and the low in the west (aloft) and the ridge in the middle…resembles the Greek letter Omega
Can you see it?
It’s a rather stable pattern and one which the modelling typically does rather well in forecasting…as it has done with this. What eventually breaks it down is when one of the upper level lows either fades away or starts moving…and that will be the case early next week. The SW upper level storm will start to come out and weaken as it does so. It should however provide enough lift and increasing instability to create storms in the Plains again WED>THU. The risk of severe weather may crop up, perhaps more so towards OK and TX than here…but we may get some storm development closer to KC as well…perhaps just not as strong (this may change).
Ahead of the change though (on Tuesday) another weak front will be cutting the area in half later in the afternoon. Fronts + May + dew points near 60° need to be watched. Model forecasts though show a good cap in place on Tuesday afternoon near the fronts location near and south of I-70. Assuming that holds we should stay dry. Something to watch though just in case.
So really the best chances for rain are sometime WED>THU it appears. This will be connected to the weakening upper level storm that will be moving through the area towards Friday morning. So as this upper level storm moves through the Plains…it will send out little pockets of lift…by then we should not be capped anymore…and those pockets will be able to produce rain/storms sometime Wednesday…and then perhaps cooler showers on Thursday. If things progress according to plan…we should be in good shape for next weekend as well!
It’s a bit early for confident rainfall forecasts but another 1/2″-2″ seems doable with the mid week situation, especially IF we can get some better convection.
That’s it for today…I’ll try and get another blog out Sunday afternoon…the nice weather though will make it a challenge!
Our feature photo comes from Doreen Burrus of Pittsville, MO with a constructed pond that got filled thanks to the rains in April!