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Joe’s Weather Blog: A week of changes ahead (SUN-5/7)

Another sensational day out there with deep blue skies and pleasant temperatures in the 70s as I start this afternoon weather blog. It’s going to get more summer-ish over the next few days as dew points start creeping upwards and temperatures get warmer. Rain is also going to be needed for the grass, if nothing else, heading towards mid -week and there will be a near stationary front around the region waffling in the area that will provide that moisture.


Forecast:

Tonight: Clear and pleasant with lows in the 50s

Monday: Sunny, windy, and warmer with highs in the mid 80s. Wind gusts to 25-30 MPH are possible

Tuesday: Variable clouds and somewhat more humid. Highs near 85°


Discussion:

Yesterday I started this discussion by showing you the satellite picture which was clear as a bell. Today it’s “mostly” the same except for the clouds out in the western Plains region. This is signifying some warmer air and some advancing moisture that is starting to move towards the east.

It’s not out of the question that this moisture turns into some random showers across far northern MO and NE MO Monday. It should avoid our KC area though. We’ll probably get some cloud cover though early Monday.

The weather stories of the week are the warm-up to start the week…the mid week rain chances…how much rain we get during the middle of the week…and finally a much cooler Thursday.

Let’s tackle #1 first. Monday at 7PM the surface weather map shows a cold front toward the west of the area.

That front will continue moving our way and into the KC region later on Tuesday…and then stall in the region on Wednesday into Thursday while waffling north an south. Fronts in the area are always noteworthy during this time of the year in terms of inserting rain chances. Tuesday though remains iffy at best…because of somewhat strong capping that will be present ahead and immediately behind the front. IF that capping wasn’t there I’d have rain in the forecast for Tuesday evening too. The cap though should hold (I think) + the winds ahead of the front will be predominately from the SW and that means with SW winds ahead of the front and N/NW winds behind the front…there isn’t a lot of convergence along the boundary. This too reduces the chances for storms to form. It’s worth watching though.

The front will then be in the vicinity on Wednesday into Thursday morning before eventually passing towards the south of the area later Thursday. This will then take the rain chances with it and shove them south of the region. It’s what happens though with the front in the area WED>THU that will create the rain…the issue is how much rain will come about. I still see no reason to change my initial 1/2″-2″ early thoughts with this scenario. Odds favor something the comes in waves and for areas near and north of the front’s location…the heavier rains may fall…but again with a waffling front that may be 75 miles north or south of the model data today…it’s impossible to say who gets the worst of rain. To add into the confusion…the rain itself will be acting to cool the air down to the north side of the frontal zone. This will act as force to push the front south at times…so there are things that will be watched as the whole things evolve.

Here is a look at the NAM model and the GFS model showing the differences in the rain amounts. You can see there are some rather significant ones in terms of the expanse of coverage and the amounts.

I think it really comes down to where the front settles in. Also of interest for later Wednesday is the potential of some stronger>severe storms. The NAM model takes the Tuesday front…moves it to the south of KC..then retreats it back northwards later Wednesday. The front then may be near the I-70 corridor later in the day. Should that pan out…I could see how we could get some stronger storms to form, along with the risk of some severe weather. It’s not the greatest set-up regarding the wind fields…but it’s worth noting. Right now the SPC has nothing indicated on our area…but this may change Monday.

Then on Thursday with E or NE winds in place…it’s going to be tough to warm up…highs at best in the 60-65° range…although it could be cooler (50s) very easily.

No weather blog Monday due to a golf tournament I’ll be helping out with.

Our feature photo comes fro Brandy Seidel…ducks/geese galore!

Joe

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