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Joe’s Weather Blog: A dry start to May gets wetter (TUE-5/9)

Good morning…temperatures are quickly warming up this morning. We’re in a warmer air mass right now and while there are some higher cirrus clouds out there to start the day…another warm and somewhat humid day is on tap for the region. The day will be dry though thanks to a cap in place in the area preventing any storms from forming. Also there isn’t a real trigger out there to set things in motion either although a weak front is dangling in N MO this morning.


Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the mid 80s

Tonight: Fair to partly cloudy skies. There may be some rain towards the north of KC. Odds favor it to stay up towards Northern MO and far NE KS. Lows 60-65°

Wednesday: Variable clouds with thunderstorm chances increasing later in the day and overnight. There also may be a few showers or sprinkles during the daytime…but it looks like the heavier stuff will wait, Highs 80-85°

Wednesday night: Storms with the potential of locally heavy rain. Lows dropping into the 50s.

Thursday: Storm/rain chances will continue into the early afternoon, then the activity should be swept to the south of the area with cooler temperatures. Highs around 70°


Discussion:

Well nothing has really changed from what I was talking about over the weekend. May typically is a pretty wet month in the area and after a dry 1st 9 days…we have rain in the forecast. If you’ve ever wondered how the precipitation breaks down over the course of the year (on average)…take a look a the following graph.

So May and June are the 2 wettest months for the year overall (on average). So far this May though…it’s been a bit of a struggle on the north side at least and the other day I posted and talked about this map…showing the vast differences in the last 4+ weeks of rains through the region. You can see northern MO , in particular, could use some good rains. Areas farther south could stand a longer break but area-wide with the vegetation growing like crazy and everything nice and green…that vegetation is going through and using a lot of top soil moisture right now…so at least he grass may be ready for a decent drink of water in parts of the area at least.

So with all that said…let’s get into the rain chances locally.

This morning there is a weak front that is stationary across N MO. You can see it on the morning surface map.

That front will probably waffle around the region today. It may drift a bit farther south for a while then stall and retreat northwards tonight.

A somewhat weak south flow of air exists south of the front this morning and dew points are in the 60°+ range south into TX. It’s not exactly overwhelming surface moisture though and for whatever reason we do seem to have an issue, for now, getting that really thick surface moisture  up towards the I-70 corridor. We should though see an increase in the surface dew points to borderline muggy status tomorrow I think.

When looking at the bottom part of the atmosphere (from about 20,000 feet downwards though) the moisture will be more substantial. Notice this morning…the really thick stuff is down towards the southern Plains…

From roughly the I-40 corridor southwards…the air is juicier compared to the air mass on top of our area for now and that air mass farther south will be migrating north today and tomorrow. That will help to provide a lot of moisture to whatever tries to form and move through the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

In May and June, especially, heavy rains are seem easier to get. This is part of the reason why. These air masses are the reason why. When there is a trigger to tap into these moist air masses…you get heavier rains. So let’s see how things pan out for tomorrow night in particular…you can see the potential for 1-2″ of rain on average in the area. Some may not get those amounts though…we’ll be talking about convection and that almost always leaves some wanting more and some wanting less.

The front that will stay north of the area through tomorrow afternoon will be easing southwards Wednesday afternoon and night. As this occurs a weakening upper level storm will be moving into the Plains and moving through the I-40 corridor towards OK and AR. This should create enough rising air up here combined with the front in the area, and the moisture streaming up from the south…to produce locally heavy rains.

Wednesday (through 6PM) overall though may persistently wet. There should be at least some showers and sprinkles in the area during the day (it won’t take much to get at least something scattered in the area going) then there should be this convergence of things happening Wednesday night into Thursday morning before everything moves towards the south of the area.

A few days ago  i mentioned that this looked like a 1/2″-2″ rainfall event for the area (on average). To me that is still what it looks like to me. Some may get more…others less.

The good news is that we’re setting up to have another phenomenal weekend in the KC area for all the action out at the K and also out at KS Speedway…and obviously we don’t want to to forget Mothers Day!

There was some interesting weather yesterday, associated with this storm in the western part of the country. Check out some of the tweets sent out by the Colorado Rockies baseball team. They were supposed to be playing the Cubs (who I’m sure after the 18 inning marathon game late Sunday night) were happy to get a postponement.

Never s good sign when you have to shovel hail off the field before a game. They ended up postponing the game. There were some big stones coming down in the Denver, CO area yesterday…

You can see that storm spinning around in the SW part of the US…

We’ll watch that over the next couple of days an see how far north it can get.

Our feature photo comes from Sharon Roberts…showing the Bucksaw campground down at Truman Lake.

Have a great day!

Joe

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