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Joe’s Weather Blog: Another dry stretch begins (THU-5/11)

Good afternoon…well yesterday’s blog mentioned a disturbance coming up from the SW…and I wondered how that would affect the storms that were forecast for last night…in the end that disturbance took away most of the real instability to fuel heavier overnight storms. It was strong enough though to knock down more than a couple of trees and limbs in the region…including from your’s truly. More on that in the discussion.


Forecast:

Tonight: Variable clouds and cool with lows near 50°-55°. There may be some rain moving up from the south, especially for our southern areas…

Friday: becoming sunny and pleasant with highs in the 70s

Saturday: Great and warmer with highs well into the 70s

Sunday (Mother’s Day): Warm and breezy with highs into the 80s


Discussion:

Well let’s start with yesterday. An upper level wave came out of the SW Plains region and came into somewhat unstable air in the western MO and eastern KS area. That fuels some storms (scattered) but strong enough to create gusty winds in some areas. I was looking out the back door and estimated winds of around 60 MPH…one of my colleagues who lives north of me did the same approximate estimate…

I should’ve been looking out the front window I guess…because this happened at some point during the gusty winds.

It was a Pear tree some some sort that I planted too close to the house about 10-15 years ago or so…it grew like crazy…

Anyway…that chunk fell off and thankfully a significant limb landed in the dirt…and helped keep the real weight of the limb off the A/C which only got a small dent. Another feet or two to the left and our 1 year old A/C would’ve been crushed.

So today after inspecting the tree and realizing that there were additional splits in it that would eventually cause other parts to come down…likely on the house this time..I decided to have it removed. It’s actually sort of sad because that tree provided great afternoon shade for the western side of the house. So the A/C that lived after the storm…is about to get a lot of work this summer.

Rather sad it see it go…we’ll look at planting something this coming fall but it will take years for it to grow tall and wide…probably more than we’ll actually be in the house

Onwards…

Our front from yesterday that was north of the area…is now well to the south of the region…

This essentially has removed any trigger to get additional storms into motion and affect our immediate region. As a result radar looks pretty clean and that may be the end of the rain chances here for about 5+ days or so.

Rain amounts from yesterday we’re mostly in the 1/4″-3/4″ range. This is on the low side of my forecast…there were some higher totals with the thunderstorms. KCI had 3/4″ and there were some 1-1 1/4″ totals up in northern MO…which I’m sure was welcome (and there are still some leftover showers up there as I type this blog).

The worst of the storms are down towards OK…even a few reports of tornadoes down there as well.

Some pretty big hailers as well…

We’re shaping up to have some warmer weather settle in heading towards the end of the weekend and once it gets here…it should last through most of next week with a gradual moistening of the dew points…

That eventually will set the stage for thunderstorms and potentially severe weather to develop in the Plains region…somewhere. Far too early to specify how we’ll be impacted…you can see the forecast warm-up by looking at the GFS ensemble temperature trends for the next 2+ weeks…and you especially notice it in the overnight lows…that’s where the gulf moisture and the higher dew points play out.

 

The longer range models towards the end of next week are rather consistent…there are timing and placement issues with the next developing upper level storm…as to be expected…but the both concur that something will be out across the western part of the country.

Severe weather concerns may be a bit higher in the western Plains at least initially.

The bottom line is pretty typical spring time weather.

Joe

 

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