Joe’s Weather Blog: Another day of watching storm potential (FRI-5/19)

Good morning…opening salvo to the days ongoing storm threat…additional details coming this afternoon. There are a variety of factors today that are being juggled in the atmosphere…and obviously things bear watching but I’m suspicious about the severe weather risk in the KC area today…flooding risk yes…beyond that I lack confidence in hail/wind threats for the Metro at this point.


Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds/sun with scattered showers/storms at any time. Highs in the 70s with enough sun in-between the rain.

Tonight: Heavier rains likely. Another 1-3″ possible…watch for flooding. Lows in the 50s

Saturday: Any rain should end before lunch…then variable clouds…cooler with highs in the 60s

Sunday: A nice day…highs well into the 60s


Discussion:

I measured 1.5″ of rain in my gauge this morning. Other areas saw almost twice that amount. Between yesterday and this morning…KCI had almost 3.4″ of rain. Impressive! We may have been behind average for the month…but as May can do…it can pour and pour good. Yesterday’s total was 3.05″…missing a record by .16″.

Hail was also an issue…with golf ball sized+ occurring, especially along and north of the K7 corridor…also through parts of the northland.

Strong winds also rearranged patio furniture and knocked down some trees and limbs.

All told there were about 20 reports of tornadoes…and hundreds of other reports of winds/hail nationwide.

By the way…in Colorado…it’s winter still…some amazing snow totals…in excess of 3-4 feet in the higher elevations!

Fascinating storm ongoing in the Plains…

This whole mess is showing up nicely on the water vapor loop…which enhances the moisture in the atmosphere…

Notice the blowup of clouds this morning towards OK and N TX…those are ongoing storms…

Let’s watch that area as it moves towards the NE…there are other storms closer to home this morning as well…and as a result with off/on chances today, I’m just not confident that we’ll really destabilize enough to get bigger storms to impact the area.

Clouds are streaming northwards from the convection down in OK as I type this out…

That too will help to reduce the potential instability locally today I think…every time we have some rain and appetizer storms move through…what instability tries to build up will be knocked down again locally.

Where there are longer breaks in the rain/storms…and some instability can build up and wait to be tapped…perhaps we could see some stronger storms…odds favor areas towards the south and SE of KC for that as of this writing. The area from KC southwards is under a “slight” risk for storms

The bottom line is that we may be now transitioning out of a significant severe weather threat and entering a more flooding threat which is our more typical spring time concern in this part of the country.

The worst comes to an end Saturday morning and we start to improve in the afternoon especially.

Another note…a cooler than average outlook next week should preclude much of a chance of severe weather locally for awhile…so this may do it for a while.

Our feature photo comes from Jason Curtis from Parkville, MO.

Joe

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