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Joe’s Weather Blog: More rain chances to start the week (SUN-5/21)

Good afternoon. A big thank you to those who commented via FB about their recollections regarding the anniversary of the Ruskin Heights tornado. There were some fascinating stories that you relayed and they were interesting to read through. In case you missed that blog…here it is once again.

Meanwhile I ‘m looking at deep blue skies out there right now. There may be some clouds around but it’s a beautiful but cool for May afternoon out there. Highs today will get into the 65-70° range with a nice west breeze. You can tell that the atmosphere has been cleaned out a bit by the deepness of the blue skies.


Forecast:

Tonight: Clear skies and cool with lows dropping to around 50°’

Monday: Increasing clouds and cool. Showers with perhaps a few thundershowers will be possible BUT I’m not expecting an all day and widespread rain. So there will be opportunities to get some stuff done outside and some areas may stay dry all day. Highs near 70° with enough sunshine.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with some scattered showers possible. The better chances will be in the afternoon. Highs in the 60s


Discussion:

We’ve talked quite a bit about May and June being the wettest time of the year with average rainfall/month of almost 5 1/4″. Since April 1st we’ve already had about 11 1/3″ of rain. Now as we enter the last part of May…we notice that the average daily rain is about .18″/day or about 1 1/4″ per week.

As a matter of fact since the 1st of April…this is the 5th wettest we’ve been.

If you include today…we drop down to #6.

So the mantra of rain is certainly out there…and it doesn’t take much. During this time of the year moisture as it returns northwards, whether at the surface or above us, has a tendency to create clouds…and if the moisture return is strong enough…and IF there is some sort of disturbance coming through the Plains…the disturbance has a better chance of creating rain.

We’re seeing that today with what’s been happening across the western Plains states…there has been some persistent shower activity out there from this morning onwards…

The disturbance causing that will drift more towards the ESE and the rain will fall apart.

Our potential Monday rain will come from a disturbance that will generate across the western parts of NE/SD and E WY later today and streak towards the SE. As it does so, it will generate lift ahead of the disturbance itself tomorrow morning. That “lift” to the air will interact with moisture coming in from the southwest…and also coming in from the west…and allow clouds to become more numerous and from those clouds some showers. The showers that form are going to be moving towards the east or east-south-east. Where exactly these showers end up…is a question. I’m NOT convinced that the KC area will get the most rain out of this. Models are going to be useful up to a point. It will show the potential for the initial development…and their idea for where the activity will go…but when it comes to reality, the activity may well vary in location by 50-100 miles…

That’s what I’m strongly mentioning the chance of rain but I’m not yet convinced where the best rains will set up. Perhaps north of us…west of here…maybe here. Again just be aware of the potential of off and on rain in the area Monday. This makes temperatures a tough forecast as well with clouds around and the remnants of a cool air mass in place…one wonders just how warm we can get. I’ve had 73° in the forecast but may well drop that into the 60s for the evening update on the air.

Then 1st thing Tuesday morning…a cold front will come through…with cooler air flowing in at the surface and enough May sunshine to heat things up, the atmosphere will again get somewhat unstable in the afternoon. A secondary push of cooler air comes in later Tuesday…and that secondary push may be enough to help create additional showers. Of note is that thought that the freezing level above us will be low for May (only about 6-7,000′ up). So should any clouds build up through that altitude (won’t be hard) whatever raindrops are there may freeze and as a result some small hail could fall later Tuesday IF you get one of these convective showers…odds favor nothing really bigger than pea-sized hail.

The cooler weather will be with us into Thursday and clouds may well be an issue with this cooler air mass Tuesday and Wednesday…it may almost remind you of fall weather actually as highs may really be struggling depending on the cloud situation. Would I be surprised IF we struggle to get to 60° on Wednesday…nope!

We’ll have additional rain chances on Friday and Saturday…and as we glance into the holiday weekend (where it seems like we always have some rain at some point) odds are we’ll probably have at least something at one time or the other…although overall the holiday weekend and the official kickoff to summer looks decent…not great but decent.

OK that’s it for today…I’ll get another blog update out tomorrow morning I think.

Our feature photo comes from Sarah N Scott Miller of the hail by K-7 and Shawnee Mission Parkway.

Joe

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