Joe’s Weather Blog: Pesky rains in the area (MON-5/22)
Good morning…clouds are quickly on the increase as I start this weather blog and in time, some rain will start to fall in the area with rain amounts for the day likely to be under 1/4″ for many…let’s just call it a pesky rain moving through. Radar will be posted below from the NWS. Overall the weather this week will run cooler than average…giving the A/C’s a bit of a break. They’ve been working a bit more than I would personally like (for my electric bill) over the last 6 weeks or so.
Today: Clouds continue to increase and lower. Scattered showers will be moving through the region, especially later this morning into the evening hours. It may not rain continuously though, and while some get the rain others won’t get a drop from this. Temperatures may max out in the 70° range or so. Perhaps warmer towards the south of KC…there well may not be much rain in the KC Metro from noon through 4PM or so.
Tonight: There may be a nice lull in the rain sometime this evening…then another chance of showers early Tuesday morning. This will be associated with a weak cold front moving in. Lows around 50°
Tuesday: Variable clouds and breezy. There could be some scattered showers or thundershowers later in the afternoon. Highs in the 60s
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with cooler temperatures. Highs 60-65°. Some scattered PM showers are possible, especially on the MO side.
Well let’s start with radar this morning…as it should tell the story regarding the weather for the day. Keep an eye on the rain potential with everything moving from the west to the east through the afternoon
The morning balloon launch shows quite a bit of dry air that will need to be overcome for that rain to really make an impact…in time it will but this may be a case where the radar looks worse than reality for a little while until the lower part of the atmosphere can be saturated.
The clouds though are certainly increasing…and there is a disturbance helping to trigger the Plains rain this morning…I was tracking it out of CO last night on the news for you…
As this disturbance comes eastbound the “lift” to the air really increases later this morning into the mid afternoon hours…so that’s our highest risk of rain in the KC metro area it seems. I’m not expecting too many places to get more than 1/4″ or so from this. There may be some real breaks in the rain as well throughout the day. Here is the short term model…called the HRRR from IA State to give you an idea of how the day may play out.
The lull this evening in the rain may come about as the disturbance pushes east of the State Line area…and for a brief time we go into sinking air…
At the same time there is another disturbance coming down in the flow across the northern Plains. That will help develop a weak cold front that will move towards Nebraska as the day moves along. Enough instability may build well towards the NW of the region that some thunderstorms may develop in Nebraska…and move SE with time. The problem for those storms is after sunset tonight they may weaken…and still be well NW of KC…so that by the time the rain gets back towards the Metro overnight, there may not be a lot left of the storms…or even the rain for that matter. IF something can hold together though…there might be another round of showers with maybe a rumble or two very late tonight.
I’m not expecting any severe weather locally…the only chance I could see is maybe a random 1″ hailstone in far(!) NW MO towards the IA border.
The real weather story for the week as a whole are the cooler temperatures…Wednesday in particular may be about 15° below average…although today and tomorrow will struggle as well to get much above 67° in some cases. The average high for this week is around 77° or so…we may not get there again till perhaps Thursday.
The cause of the coolness for the middle of the week is an upper level storm across Canada that will be spitting a disturbance on southwards…you can see the upper level low spinning by looking at the water vapor loop this morning…look towards the north of Minnesota. A wave is going to wrap around that bugger and drop southwards, actually coming VERY close to KC later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and move on through. That wave represents a pocket of colder air aloft…which combined with temperatures around 60° or so at the surface will create a large spread of temperatures from the ground upwards…that promotes rising air during the day with the sun’s heat helping the cause tremendously…and that should promote at least some cloud cover on Wednesday.
Heading towards the holiday weekend, for reasons mentioned in yesterday’s blog…we’ll have some rain chances although the model data is sort of zeroing in on the higher chances being on FRI>SAT with Sunday and Monday being the drier days. There are still though some unknowns about this play out of the weekend.
We should be vulnerable to seeing some activity from thunderstorm complexes to start the weekend…it might be a deal we’re we’re fighting the rain chances Saturday though mid-day before we hopefully start seeing a drying trend kick in (although the GFS would argue for more rain through Saturday itself). It does appear that connected with this, Sunday and especially Monday would be the milder 2 days of the 3 day weekend. Where exactly these thunderstorm complexes move and who see’s the most rain (1-2+) from them remains to be seen. They won’t even form till later Thursday night it appears…so we’ll watch and update that potential as the week moves along. One thing for sure…with the cooler weather this week and the rain potential heading into the start of the holiday weekend…those pool openings will be rather chilly for swimming.
Hey we’re 30 days away from summer and we gain another 24 minutes (mostly evening) of daylight between now and then!
Our feature photo comes from @lightningdude1 of a serene scene from Lenexa (Sarko Park) yesterday evening.