Joe’s Weather Blog: Be Weather Aware on Saturday (THU-5/25)

Good afternoon…what a beautiful day out there today with bright blue skies (for now) and pleasant temperatures. As I type this blog…KCI is 72°…that’s San Diego weather! It will be changing though…and you’ll be feeling the humidity more and more heading into the start of the holiday weekend. This is the wettest time of the year…it appears the best chance of rain/storms over the holiday weekend will be on Saturday. At this point Sunday and Monday like rather nice.


Forecast:

Tonight: Increasing clouds this evening with a chance of scattered storms and rain moving into the area near or after 12AM. This activity hasn’t formed yet (as of this writing) but is expected to develop in the western Plains and role our way. Lows around 60°

Friday: Clouds and sun with a slight chance of some isolated storms late in the afternoon. It should be warmer and much more humid in the afternoon with highs into the 80s

Saturday: This is the tough forecast day because of the potential of some sort of thunderstorm complex affecting parts of the area during the mid part of the day (or earlier). What happens or doesn’t happen with that complex may affect the later afternoon storm chances and the severe weather risk in the KC area. Highs should be around 80° as an average, perhaps cooler towards N MO. This is a day that will need monitoring for severe weather potential

Sunday-Monday: We should be good shape with partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures. Highs around 80°


Discussion:

As you make your plans for the holiday weekend…the day to be wary of is Saturday. For some reason today, as I was looking over my twitter feed (@fox4wx) I noticed this rather dramatic video…

For some reason…I had a flashback to one of my more memorable days here at the station at that was (I think it was a Sunday) Memorial Day weekend in 1996. When a wet microburst hit the Raintree Lakes subdivision in Lee’s Summit, MO. Winds were estimated at 100-120 MPH from that microburst…and while the community at large had never heard the term before…it brought that vernacular into the minds of many. I dug this snapshot off a MARC report…

I’m not saying we’ll be dealing with that this weekend…but I think about that microburst every Memorial Day weekend.

The “potential” scenario for Saturday is dependent on many factors, least of which are 1) will we get worked over before lunch by a thunderstorm complex 2) where will this complex throw an outflow boundary (mini cold front) towards…3) will there be a cap in place 4) will the cap break locally 5) will there be a surface low pressure area around somewhere…enhancing the potential for supercell thunderstorms to it’s east…6) 200 other things.

So yes Saturday is a day to be Weather Aware as we say…

There are signals, in looking at the model data that where the worst storms develop…the potential would be for some rather extreme hail on top of everything else. The SPC (Storm Predication Center) has placed our region under a “slight>enhanced” category.

Here is a more refined view…

You notice that areas towards the south of the KC Metro area are in a higher risk category…heads up for those from Sedalia>Clinton>Butler>Pleasanton and southwards including the Lakes(!) region of central MO.

So with that out there…the devil will be in the details…and as you know I try to mention sometimes that what we’re trying to do here is predict things that don’t exist. Our severe weather risk towards KC and the I-70 corridor is going to be closely connected to whether or not some sort of morning to early afternoon complex of storms/rain moves through the area. IF it does, it would effectively (probably) shove a boundary (outflow-mini cold front) towards the south of the Metro…this boundary would then be sitting in some developing afternoon VERY unstable air leading to the potential of explosive storm development. Where will that boundary set-up though. Considering the complex that will create the boundary in the 1st place won’t exist till later Friday night…who knows where it will set up for sure.

The instability though near and south of whatever boundary develops will be VERY high probably. This will be the result of warm air (80s) and some rather high dew points (65-70°). It’s a potent combination. There are indications on the models of some capping…BUT the capping along the boundary and south of there will be breakable…and that could release a lot of energy through the atmosphere creating some big-time storms.

With that boundary lurking (somewhere) the potential of rotating storms is elevated and that brings the specter of a tornado into play as well. So that is another issue to be aware of. Odds of that may be somewhat higher towards the SE of KC…BUT again it will depend on where that boundary set’s up.

One way of following this yourself may be to see how the weather is, and radar looks, on Saturday. IF there is a whole mess of rains/storms in the region…the severe weather risk would be greatly diminished, assuming the activity is still going through mid-day. IF that complex is farther north towards the IA border and we pop well into the 80s with rather juicy dew points we could be in business with bigger storms and the threat of all different types of severe weather.

It’s certainly something to pay attention too during the day. Model solutions are varied…as a matter of fact the latest EURO model that just came out has explosive development of storms closer to the KC metro area that the other model data…

Right now Sunday and Monday both look to be rather pleasant days overall.

Let’s keep an eye on Saturday and for those heading towards the Lakes area…be especially careful of the later afternoon storm potential.

Finally tonight…my thanks to the local chapter of the KC-American Meteorological Society. Colleagues and weather enthusiasts last night listened to my presentation about the overuse of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings that I’ve been presenting this spring to various organizations…it’s a great talk because it generates lots of discussion and I love discussing the weather!

If you’re interested in participating in our local AMS…you’re absolutely invited to our next meeting in the fall. We have yearly dues of $20 and have about 7-8 meetings per year at various restaurants around the metro. ANYBODY with an interest in weather is welcome…most talks are for the general weather community. IF you want more information please feel free to leave me a FB note or comment to the blog and I’ll get you’re email and add you to the announcements.

Our feature photo comes from Allen Robertson down on the farm…of a pretty sunrise from this morning.

Next update is Friday afternoon on the blog.

Joe

 

 

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