Joe’s Weather Blog: Bigger storm threat is done in KC (SAT-5/27)
These things are never easy…with the thunderstorms moving through the north side of the metro this early Saturday morning…and a rain cooled air mass being pushed out of those storms and moving towards the SE slowly…this may in fact stabilize things around the metro for the rest of the day BUT there are still many questions about how far this rain-cooled air mass will go and what happens later today in the building instability. Again be Weather Aware today just in case. areas farther south are perhaps more in line for the worst weather, especially down towards the Lakes region.
Today: Isolated storms are still possible later (odds are not severe) this afternoon but skies will be variably cloudy at times this afternoon. Temperatures may recover into the 70s later this afternoon and early this evening.
Tonight: Fair skies and cooler with lows in the 50s
Sunday: Mostly sunny and nice with highs around 75-80°
Monday: Partly cloudy and pleasant with highs around 80°
Well this is a mess…and basically we’ll be watching how the rain cooled air that is moving through the KC metro this morning from the storms up north, tries to recover this afternoon. The clouds should be thinning out and the instability will be building from KC (I-70 especially) southwards. It’s really going to be a matter of watching radar play out during the afternoon.
One scenario that could easily come together is for the rain cooled air to continue to spread south and south east through the entire KC metro area. This would reduce or at least limit the extreme storm chances and the higher end severe weather risk considerably this afternoon and shunt the worst of the activity to our SE part of the viewing area…towards Marshall/Sedalia/Clinton/Butler/Pleasanton and southwards region…especially towards the Lakes area. With that said some severe storms are still possible in the KC vicinity through 4PM or so.
Another scenario is for the rain cooled air mass to slow and stop spreading through the area…and for the sun to heat things into the mid 80s from KC southwards. The instability will be huge this afternoon and a boundary will be lurking in the region…indicating a higher chance of the nastier storms closer to home. Should this play out…hail/wind and an isolated tornado risk will be an issue towards the I-70 corridor from the south.
What appears MOST likely is that areas north of KCI>St Joe will not have to deal with severe storms I think. They are getting worked over this morning and the rain cooled air mass will linger there for a good part of the day.
From KC southwards though…it’s still a dicey forecast. I’m somewhat NOW leaning towards scenario #1. The model data overnight was worthless and even this morning while on the air it was pretty clueless. There are some indications it’s finally starting to figure things out a bit.
The 9AM surface map shows this rain cooled air mass from KC northwards…and looking carefully at radar…you can see it pressing south slowly but surely…IF that air mass can hold on…we would have limited severe weather chances in teh KC metro area this afternoon. In the map below the temperatures are in RED
Here is the latest weather map…same as above but will auto update. Something for you to track today will be the wind direction (watch for switching winds from the N/NE to the SE/S as an indicator that the warm air if trying to fight back northwards this afternoon).
Another option is to look at the building instability. One waqy in doing that is by looking at the CAPE values or Convective Available Potential Energy. Higher the CAPES…the more instability…and there could be some extreme values towards the south of the KC area later today.
The blue hatching represents where the is still somewhat of a cap in place or a lid, if you will, keeping storms from really getting together.
I hesitate to add in the HRRR model because it’s been awful in the last 12 hours…but this will auto-update as the day moves along…so it may “catch on” in time as it tries to figure things out.
The bottom line is that a rain cooled air mass has spread into the region…and this may be the controlling factor in determining the higher end type of severe weather risk and perhaps shunting it closer towards central and southern MO and SE KS this afternoon. How strong that air mass turns out to be after lunch will determine our local severe weather risk.
I’ll refrain from posting the SPC forecasts on this particular blog…because, at this writing, I’m not on board with their thoughts entirely.
Our feature photo is from Justin Payne taken this morning of a pretty nifty shelf cloud from the St Joseph area.