Joe’s Weather Blog: Chasing storm chances (TUE-5/30)

Good morning…beautiful out there this morning with the birds singing and comfortable temperatures. There may be a few brief sprinkles but aside from that the 1st part of the day looks great. With 2 days to go…our average temperature this month is running .6° below average. We don’t have many below average months for temperatures these days…the last one was back in December.


Forecast:

Today: An isolated early sprinkle possible then partly cloudy and pleasant with highs around 80°. During the afternoon and early evening there is a risk of some thunderstorms developing and moving through the region. The activity appears to be somewhat scattered in nature…but not out of the question. It shouldn’t rain in any one spot but there could be a few isolated more feisty storms should anything get going.

Tonight: Clearing back out and cool with lows 50-55°

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and pleasant again with highs around 80°. I can’t rule out additional storms in the afternoon/evening

Thursday: Ditto


Discussion:

This morning there is a small little wave dropping towards the ESE…that is the cause of the little sprinkles that are on the KS side as I type this up to start the day…there is a lot of dry air though below 10,000′ so they are really struggling. Can’t rule out a few drops of rain somewhere out there though.

Here’s radar, because it may get a bit more active later today…

Temperatures today with the sunshine should warm up very nicely. Dry air + a rising seasonal sun angle during this time of the year is a good combination for warmth. We should pop to at least 80° with some areas doing a bit better. Not bad after morning lows of 50° at KCI…almost 10° below average to start the day. That same dry air can still cool down nicely at night, despite the dwindling nighttime hours.

There is going to be a very subtle wind shift moving through the region later today. The “convergence” along that wind shift line doesn’t look overly impressive. Convergence is what you think it is…when two or more things are coming together. In today’s case, it’s a reference to how the winds at the surface blow into each other…or don’t reducing convergence. Today we’ll have a somewhat light SW to W wind…while behind the wind shift, the winds will be more NWesterly. That doesn’t promote a lot of convergence. IF the winds were more towards the S or SE ahead of that line…it would be a more convergent set-up.

With all that said though…sometimes, especially during this time of the year…it doesn’t really take much for storms to fire up in the heat of the afternoon, even with somewhat modest dew points. There is no cap to prevent storms…the air aloft is cool enough to allow the clouds to grow in the later afternoon especially and there are VERY subtle signs of some weak lift moving in as well…helping the storm chances. It may not be widespread…but it’s worth mentioning.

Tomorrow that MAY be a another little ripple coming down in the WNW flow of air aloft so that is another chance it appears. It seems though during this time of the year, model data sometimes struggles with overgenerating these little waves and holding them together for too long as they develop clusters of storms in the western or central Plains and drop then too vigorously towards the region…so by no means a “set in stone” situation.

In reality, perhaps Thursday offers the best and somewhat more widespread opportunity for storms as warmer air with extra moisture fights it’s way back northwards. Where those storms form though could be anywhere in the KC region, especially later Wednesday night into lunch Thursday.

Heading into the 1st part of June…it doesn’t look overall overly warm although there will be some warm days…but there are some decent signals of some cooler weather at times through the 1st 15 day so the month or so. It’s not an overly dry pattern (overall) either…so hopefully we’ll continue to get some timely rains in the area which would be a welcome start to summer around these parts. My thought process is that the back half of the month would trend warmer than average while the front half may end up near or below average for temperatures as a whole.

Random weather tidbits time…

Did you know that Orlando, FL has had a 5.11″ of rain this year…driest start for them going back to around 1898! Here in KC we’ve had over 16 1/4″ so far…not bad at all. The lack of rain in the SE part of the country is contributing to the worst drought showing up there compared to the rest of the US…

Meanwhile down towards Miami, FL…Saturday was their 2nd hottest day ever…and hottest May day on record…98°…2° away from tying their all time high. They’ve hit 98° more than a few times though.

That would be the equivalent of KC hitting 111° in a sense since our all time record is 113°

OK that’s all I’ve got for you this morning…dodge the rain drops and enjoy the day. Our feature photo comes from Brandon Boleyn towards Holmes road on Saturday…some great cloud shots sent in that I’ll share with you for a few more days.

Joe

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