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Joe’s Weather Blog: I’m back…and now the weather changes (THU-6/22)

Yup…back at work…and back blogging again. I spent about 10 days taking my first European vacation. Spent most of the time in London…and a couple of days in Paris. Once I got used to getting around London…I really liked it. Paris was beautiful. The history and the buildings were amazing to see. Interesting to note that it was pretty toasty in London for a few days…and certainly in Paris too. They don’t do air conditioning there and they don’t really do ice there either. So even when you would buy a water bottle…the water was always warm. All I wanted was a QT! The trip was VERY much out of my comfort zone as I told my friends BUT now that we’ve gone…I really want to go back to Europe and especially Italy. Someday hopefully.

Onwards…I see i missed some interesting weather locally. Storms last Friday and Saturday night did quite the number I see. Lots of tree issues leading to lots of power issues. The rain though was pretty welcome I’m sure after a rather hot stretch of weather around the area. The focus for the forecast through the weekend will be on more comfortable weather heading our way.


Forecast: (if I remember how… :))

Tonight: There will be a chance of AM storms…there are negatives to the chances though so I don’t want to promise too much and northern MO may see some heavier storms compared to the I-70 corridor but at least we’ll have a chance. Looks like the time frame would be 1-5AM or so. Don’t for sure count on the storms…but the rain would be welcome for many I think.

Friday: Should be a nicer and more comfortable day with a mix of clouds and sunshine. Highs will be closer to 82°.  Dew points will be lower as well so it should be a more comfortable day.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and very nice. Highs around 83°

Sunday: Clouds and sunshine with highs again near 80°. There will be a small chance of some scattered showers out there. More on that in the discussion.


Discussion:

Our weather is going to be changing because of a cold front that will be moving into the region overnight into Friday morning. The front this afternoon is still north of us though…as the 2PM surface map shows…

I’ve also contoured in the dew points. They are in the 70s locally…so it’s summer humidity in place. Notice the cooler air (temperatures in red) in the upper Plains area…there are 70s up there…so there is a definite air mass change coming. We’re also feeling some influence on what’s left of Cindy.

The dew points when the front arrives will be around 70-75° or so…there may be some weak capping but there may be some decent available instability that IF it can be triggered…could produce some stronger storms. It’s worth a solid mention I think.

Meanwhile on Friday the cooler and lower dew point air should move into the region. This air mass will bring some nice weather into the region heading into the weekend it appears.

Aloft we’ll be going into a more NW flow of air. As we go up to about 18,000 feet…you’ll see that rather easily on the flow chart. This map is for 7PM SAT or IF you read the blog later tonight or Friday…7AM Sunday

Notice the disturbance in MN…that will help usher in a reinforcing shot of “cooler” (pleasant air) conditions into the region. NW flows during the summer months always need to be watched because sometimes there will be little disturbances…and in the above map you may be able to pick one out in the Eastern MT area or into the Dakotas that will drop into the flow and zip towards the SE or ESE. Those little buggers can create showers or storms that are typically fast moving and are not well modeled ahead of time. So that’s why I wouldn’t be shocked if we see a few echoes on radar over the weekend, especially Sunday. They really can’t be predicted well and while most of the weekend looks fine…just a heads up.

Really the bigger overall story will be several days of below average highs and lows (especially() heading into the early part of next week. Morning lows in the 50s are always welcome in late June and with the lower dew points even the A/C’s may get a bit of a break as well.

We’ll probably be setting up for more thunderstorm complex type events after TUE or WED of next week. Also the heat will be creeping closer and closer as the week moves onwards as well.

OK that’s about it for today…nice to be back…I’ll see you again in the morning starting at 8AM and have another blog update in the afternoon

Feature photo comes from Mark Wickliffe of a beautiful sunrise on 6/19.

Joe

 

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