Joe’s Weather Blog: Iffy rain chances with building heat (SUN-6/25)

Good afternoon. Another fabulous day out there with mostly sunny skies (for now) and a delightful combination of warmth of low humidity. Temperatures will remain below average for the next 2 days before the heat returns (nothing terrible) and the humidity comes back (more or less typical summer levels). Rain chances though are questionable. I’ve had a decent chance for Monday in the forecast lately…still not a convincing chance though. Perhaps the chances get better towards the end of the week…again though certainly nothing set in stone.


Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies and pleasant with lows in the 55-60° range. There may be a few early evening sprinkles moving through parts of the area.

Monday: Variable clouds and cool for late June…highs well into the 70s. There may be some showers around…especially later in the AM and afternoon…but again at this point I wouldn’t be cancelling any outdoor plans because of this threat right now.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and pleasant. Lows in the morning in the 50s with afternoon highs near 80°


Discussion:

Another great day and a great weekend around the KC region. The mornings have been perfect with lows in the 55-60° range and with a continued north wind today…dew points are still struggling to get to 50°. The 12PM suface map shows the main story (I feel) for this time of the year…the pleasant air mass in place. In the map below the dew points are in green.

In the blogs this past week…I talked about how the models typically will do a poor job in handling the flow pattern. In reality I mean picking out the location and the strength of typically rather weak little disturbances that ripple towards the SE and ESE. That has certainly been the case. On THU and FRI…the models were showing rain moving towards KC today…needless to say the satellite picture now isn’t so promising for rain today.

Now granted there is quite a bit of clouds to our immediate west and the latest weather observations show the bottom of those clouds some 6000-9000 feet above the ground.

Regional radar shows some rain well to the west of here…BUT it may be having a tough time falling ALL the way to the ground in some cases…because the observations in the map above aren’t showing any actual rain reports.

Some of those stronger echoes this afternoon, towards western KS though) should be real rain and in reality some thunderstorm activity as well out there according to lightning data.

I would expect the clouds to increase as the afternoon moves along from KC westwards. Tonight we’ll be fighting at least some cloud cover.

Monday is a weird type forecast because the disturbance that MAY give us some rain doesn’t really exist right now…but something may develop towards the western Dakotas and zip our way at some point. The dew points in the map above aren’t very high at all (at least at the surface). The lift in the air moving our way on Monday will be predominately in the mid levels of the atmosphere (about 8,000 feet and upwards) so it may be a fight between how much lift can occur later in the morning and afternoon…and how long the dry air can put up a fight. My thought is that there should be some showers on radar…but the coverage of that rain may be somewhat underwhelming.

Tuesday looks like another fabulous and comfortable day with again lower dew points and pleasant temperatures.

Wednesday will see a transition as the flow aloft flattens out and the heat that builds out west comes our way. This will mark a return of additional wind (20-30 MPH) and also higher dew points (65-70°) and temperatures (85-90°). There may be a cold front somewhere in the Plains later Wednesday (towards the NW of here) and that front could light up with some storms. Where these storms form and where then end up moving will be something to track for later Wednesday night into early Thursday. There is NO guarantee that this rain will reach us…I tend to lean more towards NE KS and NW MO + N MO from 36 highway northwards having the better chances of seeing additional rain.

That lack of confidence in the rain getting to us carries really through the forecast into the end of the week. A lagging front that will be waffling around the Plains (somewhere between here and I-80) will be a focus for storm chances. Model data won’t do well with this…its really something that you look at as the days evolve. a closer to I-70 solution for the front yields MUCH better rain chances for the KC area…farther north and not so much.

So there is potential for us to get some good rains from the set-up (especially after Wednesday night) BUT the location is still very iffy at this point. THE GFS model has well over 3″ of rain locally into the start of the holiday weekend. Again a low confidence outcome. The GFS ensembles have our area in the bulls-eye as well for heavier rain amounts. Notice how similar the  guidance looks…

 

 

One thing that does have my interest for later in the week rain amounts, is that the atmosphere may really be loaded with moisture (through the column) and this means that whatever forms would be able to generate some real heavy rain amounts in the big scheme of things (particularly WED>FRI).

So quite a few things to monitor. I’m not going to drag the sprinkler out yet…I want to see how things look later Tuesday before I start watering. The grass will need a drink though (sooner rather than later) as the nice dry air we’re enjoying really saps the moisture from the ground during this time of the year.

Our feature photo comes from Sandy Willis of a great sunset from Melvern Lake last night!

Joe

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