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Joe’s Weather Blog: Severe weather risks develop WED and THU (TUE-6/27)

Good morning…a beautiful and very comfortable day is on tap for the region as humidity levels will continue to be very reasonable for one more day. Tomorrow and Thursday though will mark the return of the juicy air, and with the building heat and a slow moving front somewhere NW of KC…storm chances will be increasing especially for areas from the KC region northwards into IA/NE. So enjoy the comfortable weather today because the A/C’s will be working a bit harder starting tomorrow.


Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and pleasant with highs 80-85° in the area

Tonight: Fair skies and not quite as cool with lows in the 65-70°

Wednesday: Variable clouds, windy and warmer with more humidity. A more typical summer day. Highs well into the 80s. Storm chances will be developing during the early morning…although they may be more focused towards NE KS and NW MO (some with hail perhaps). Another chance may develop towards the evening hours…again especially towards the north of KC. This will be a changeable forecast though.

Thursday: Pretty much more of the same…warm, windy and humid with thunderstorm chances…but I’m still not overly impressed by the storm chances locally during the day. (more in the discussion). Highs well into the 80s.


Discussion:

Well we’re going to be transitioning air masses tonight into Wednesday and you will definitely feel it. Dew points which are very pleasant this morning will be rising. As I type this blog…dew points are in the upper 50s locally…however come down towards the TX Gulf coastal area…and you can see the thicker surface moisture as dew points in central and southern TX are near 75°. That’s rich gulf moisture waiting to come northwards.

A big ingredient to the push northwards of this thicker moisture at the surface…is an area of high pressure that will be migrating towards the eastern part of the country today…as it moves farther away from the area…SE winds this morning will eventually go south…and then SSW. This will help draw the muggy weather farther and farther north over the next 36 hours or so. Here is the latest surface map showing the isobars (lines of equal air pressure). The area of high pressure this morning is located towards IL. Remember air flows OUT of high pressure and IN towards LOW pressure.

So guess what…tomorrow a LOW pressure area will be moving through the upper Midwest…this will help draw moisture INTO the LOW…and also contribute to creating lift…and eventual Plains thunderstorms as a cold front will be draped from the LOW pressure area.

Tomorrow morning as the moisture starts feeding towards the region in earnest (really later tonight) scattered storms may develop…these could impact the region…especially towards the NE KS and NW MO area. Some hail is not out of the question with these storms.

Later tomorrow (WED) though is a bit more interesting but I’m NOT as convinced we’ll have METRO impacting storms as some others are at this point. Why? Because the front will be sooooo far to the NW of KC…this may keep the strongest storms well NW of the KC METRO area.

WED AM forecast map…front way NW of here…moisture streaming into the area

Now look at WED evening…the front is still NW of the KC area…and the best instability is with the front.

Wednesday Eve

Storms that form out there will be moving towards the ENE. That’s why I think N MO and NE KS may be in a more favored area for the worst of the weather tomorrow and perhaps even into Thursday as well. The winds aloft are conducive for allowing severe level hail and wind to be the main issues up there especially. The SPC is watching this region.

also on THU…

I think that as we head towards THU night into early FRI…perhaps that will be the METRO’s best chance of seeing stronger storms with the heavy rains that we could actually use at this point (within reason of course). By then the front should be closer to the area…and perhaps make it through the area sometime FRI AM.

That would be a good thing…because at least for a couple of days that would push the focus of thunderstorms towards the south of KC (for the weekend). at some point though the front will retreat back towards the north and bring additional rain chances into the area before July 4th.

So let’s put this all together…my current thoughts are that the strongest storms for WED and THU (though afternoon) will be more focused towards and north of the 36 highway corridor. Severe weather, in the form of wind/hail (mostly) will be a concern there. For the KC metro..the storm coverage shouldn’t be as great. There will be a chance some activity could work into the metro area, especially the north side of KC WED night and THU AM but I think the better chance of something more widespread would be later THU night into early FRI AM.

What can change…IF there is some sort of big outflow that pushes southwards out of the storms towards N MO and/or NE KS…and creates either clouds (reducing future instability) or enhances the chances of stronger storms IF there is enough instability. So as I mentioned yesterday, you just take this one day at a time…and watch to see how things change.

Our feature photo comes from Todd A Surprise of a nice sunset a few days ago from Lansing, KS

Joe

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