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Joe’s Weather Blog: The cicadas are talking again (WED-6/28)

Last night after dinner while we were out on the deck I thought I heard the crackle of some cicadas for the first time this summer…and sure enough about an hour later it was a full throated song going. Summer must be here now…and on cue the humidity is back and the threat of storms in the region are back too. The nice weather of the past 5 days or so has transitioned back to something more typical. We did cool our monthly temperature down though. Last week we were running almost 4° above average for June…we’re down to about 1.7° above average. We had 5 straight days with temperatures 5-15° below average…so that was nice for late June.


Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds with more afternoon sunshine and an outside chance of a few showers/storms. Rain chance for the KC area proper is only around 20%-30% and right now doesn’t appear to be too heavy at all…perhaps some lighter showers. Highs into the 80s with dew points back to more typical summer levels…meaning it will feel more humid out there. Windy too with gusts to 30 MPH

Tonight: The highest risk of storms appears to be towards NE KS and north and NW MO. Something could wander towards us in KC but the chances don’t appear too high right now. Lows around 70-75°

Thursday: More or less the same with a chance of rain in the morning especially. Highs well into the 80s

Friday: Still the time to watch…actually Thursday evening into Friday lunch or so for the better potential of storms . Highs may be a bit cooler though…perhaps 80-85°


Discussion:

Not a lot of clarity today compared to the last several days…the main focus through Thursday afternoon still appears to be more towards NW/N MO and NE KS for storm chances and the associated severe weather risks. The KC Metro area is more on the edge of this for the next 36 hours or so (as of this morning). We have though certainly seen an increase in dew points and that is certainly making things feel more summer-ish around the region.

As as matter of fact…dew points, which were in the upper 40s a few days ago are now in the 70s…so that’s why it feels so much different. That dry air was crucial in knocking down the low temperatures especially over the past 3-4 days…this morning though the lows were in the 70s…so yup that’s summer for you.

Meanwhile the morning satellite picture shows a wealth of debris clouds around the region and these will help keep the temperatures in check through the early afternoon as they gradually thin out.

From a radar standpoint the rain/storms associated with that cloud cover is gradually weakening as of the 9AM hour…

I’m not overly thrilled about storms firing locally today…again I still think the best combination of instability and focus for storm development will be towards NE KS and NW MO later today and this evening. So really the rain chances in KC don’t look great to me for today.

Thursday may be similar to today. One change though is that a cold front which is in the far western Plains today will be a bit closer to us later Thursday night…and eventually meander through the region on Friday. That period…from later Thursday night into Friday AM still seems to be our best chance for storms.

We’ll be needing the rain…and actually we need some moisture now, especially on the south side of I-70. North parts of town actually got a “tide me over for a day or two” rain the other day…but during this time of the year 1-2″ of rain is a good thing each week…typically though NOT attainable with the more chaotic nature of storms (typically) during the summer months.

Longer term…after a moderate weekend for temperatures into perhaps Monday or Tuesday (with additional storm chances MON or TUE) we’ll probably see a nice run towards or above 90° heading into NEXT weekend with predominately dry conditions.

By the way…just because summer has started we can still get severe weather locally…mostly more of wind/hail threats overall…and this knowledge will come in handy IF you want to learn more about severe weather. The NWS in conjunction with the JOCO, KS Emergency Management will be hosting an ADVANCE severe weather training seminar coming up tomorrow night (THU) starting at 6:30.

If the weather cooperates I may try to get there myself…

We’ll see IF any boundary or something will be around the area on Thursday afternoon to re-fire convection closer into the KC metro area.

Our feature photo comes from @myfetebox who sent this in a couple of days ago.

Joe

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