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Joe’s Weather Blog: Interesting week that was + a calmer weekend (FRI-6/30)

Well it was an eventful week…remember we started out with near perfect summer weather and humidity levels but the moisture returned fast setting the stage for thunderstorm complexes. Initially the target on WED night was northern MO with 6-10+” of rain up there…and while the KC Metro wanted rain we watched…then yesterday morning a complex moved through our area with a good 1-3″ and another moved through last night with another 1-4″…so we’ve now caught up for rainfall mostly area wide. More on all this in the discussion part of the blog.


Forecast:

Tonight: Variable evening clouds and I can’t rule out a passing shower. I don’t think it will last too long but be aware of this in case you’re heading out to the game tonight or have outdoor plans. It will overall be pleasant from a temperature standpoint with lows around 60°

Saturday: Mostly sunny and seasonable with highs into 80s. The dew points though won’t be too bad though so it won’t be too uncomfortable

Sunday: Partly cloudy and seasonable again with highs well into the 80s. Muggy weather will slowly creep back in towards the afternoon. There may be a few isolated storms popping later in the afternoon or Sunday evening


Discussion:

So let’s start with a recap of the week…we were running dry which is common to a large degree during the summer period, where more often that not there is a feast of famine when it comes to rain. N MO especially had been running some decent deficits…well that got wiped away by the events of the past few days..take a look at the last 7 day totals…

You can obviously see the bulls-eye region…and some areas in the KC Metro did over 4″ in the past 2 days.

Here are some 2 day KC Metro totals from the complexes of storms that affected our area…

All the water, mainly up in N MO though continues to create flooding conditions up there and numerous flood warnings are in effect for the region up there.

 

Notice via the MoDOT website the various indicators of flooded roads up toward northern and central MO as well.

Drier weather would be a good thing for that area…and many other areas. KCI will have an above average month for rainfall (official for KC). Interestingly St Joseph has been weirdly not getting the heaviest rains from all the activity. While there may be a few showers impacting that area this evening…for the month they’ve had 2.66″ which is about 1.4″ below average whereas KCI is over 5.6″ of rain. So it goes with thunderstorms and why your results will especially vary during this time of the year.

As I mentioned the weekend overall looks good.

Then we transition back into the humidity and the better rain chances. Both Monday and Tuesday will bring various chances and while total rain-outs aren’t expected at this point…I can’t promise perfectly dry days either for early next week including the holiday.

Beyond that there are some interesting trends…there are suggestions of another rather strong heat dome developing towards the Rockies…that would again put our region into NW flow aloft and once again leave the are vulnerable to more of the overnight/AM thunderstorm complexes towards the end of next week. Beyond even that, perhaps heading towards the end of next weekend…we’ll be interesting in following the path of the heat dome building through the Rockies and the desert SW. Does it move into the Plains…shutting down the rain and jacking up the humidity levels? Setting the stage for some obnoxious heat heading towards the week of the 10th? Possible BUT if the ridge (heat dome) stays more towards the Rockies…and on occasion pokes out into the Plains, perhaps we don’t get anchored into the worst of the heat and continue with these alternating bouts of rain.

One other item of note is a developing drought across the northern Plains…that may hold a small key to where the heat dome may want to migrate towards as the summer wears on. The orange and red shadings represent the core of this developing drought. During the summer months especially “drought begets drought” and it has a tendency to “feed” on itself.

Which is interesting since I just saw this tweet from the NWS regarding their July forecast…

Remember the NWS monthly forecast is more of a probability forecast…so what it shows for our area is”EC-Equal Chances” of above or below average temperatures with a wide swath of better chances of warmth (compared to average) across the Rockies and most of the western half of the US. Higher chances of bonus rains are from the KC area towards a good chunk of the Gulf Coast.

Meanwhile over at the Weather Channel…these are there thoughts…

I’m more in the camp of a warmer than average month…with above average rain totals again. I wouldn’t be surprised if we make a run towards 100° towards the latter part of the month and with the ground slowly starting to bake out…we conceivably may be looking at some nasty heat index values towards that 12th onwards period.

Our feature photo comes from Robin Lorenson of developing thunderstorms yesterday down in SE KS (Burlington, KS). She is an avid storm photographer and does some great work!

Have a great weekend…I’ve blogged a lot this week so I may take tomorrow off from blogging. See you in the morning on FOX4 KC

Joe

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