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Joe’s Weather Blog: A blah 4th…rain trends for tonight (TUE-7/4)

Short blog today with the holiday but it’s been a very wet start to the day for the Metro and southwards with some areas of locally heavy rains including some 2.5″+ isolated totals in parts of KC. That has led to flooding conditions in the area in some cases. The rain that’s here isn’t moving much and may hang around for much of the day. There’s an upper level low spinning towards the south of KC…we’re on the northern edge of the circulation but there is enough to it to give us this persistent rain.


Forecast:

Today: Lighter rains are possible (more showery) for awhile into the afternoon..it may become rather intermittent at times this afternoon. Highs will stay cool with readings waffling around 70°

Tonight: Showers may continue in parts of the area especially the farther south of KC that you are. Should there be any breaks in the clouds before sunset and any warming…some scattered storms are possible as well. The displays tonight IF they are not cancelled will be marked by wet ground conditions in the area. Lows in the 60s

Wednesday: Clouds and maybe a few leftover showers in the morning then partly cloudy in the afternoon with highs into the 80s.

Thursday: Hotter with highs into the lower 90s and muggy too!


Discussion:

Not even sure where to begin…not the play-out I was expecting today (from yesterday morning). It wasn’t out of the realm of chances as I wrote about and there were signs last night in the short term model data that this could occur…but now the question is how long does the rain last today. It may be awhile unfortunately.

There is an upper level storm spinning around to the south of the KC metro area…

You can sort of see it on the latest water vapor loop.

It’s more or less not moving much today and as a result the rains are sort of spinning around it as radar shows.

The rain amounts already have been decent for the KC area…with some totals enough to create some flooding in the heart of the city.

Notice those red indicators…that is 2″+ and the Stormwatch rain system is showing this to be true.

My concern about today lies in the slow motion of the counterclockwise spinning storm…hence the persistent rains (more light and perhaps “showery” than heavy) that will be a concern into the evening. Here is the shorter range HRRR model showing this potential…notice how the rain (if your’e reading the blog this morning at least) tends to just “hang” around.

 

Hopefully this rain will start winding down from the south to north as the day moves along…but it’s going to be close and displays farther south especially are in jeopardy. Displays farther north have a better chance of happening. I talked about the fact that we would just have to watch this hour by hour (over the weekend) and that is going to be the case later today and this evening.

The slow movement of the system means we may be fighting clouds and showers into Wednesday for awhile.

Another chance of rain may come on Friday, followed by a humidity break heading into the weekend.

No blog on Wednesday…I’m heading to Lawrence to participate in their Emergency Planning meeting. Then a little golf at a course that I haven’t played on in over 15 years…Eagle Bend.

Our feature photo comes from Charley Caron keeping an eye on the weather down in Garnett, KS. Rain there too!

Joe

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