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Joe’s Weather Blog: A brief humidity break…then it gets worse (THU-7/6)

Good afternoon…temperatures are in the 85-90° this afternoon and it’s seasonably muggy out there as well. There is some good news regarding the latter situation as a weak front will move through the area Friday morning…this should provide the region with a decent drop in the dew points leading to a more comfortable “feel” to the air on Friday afternoon BUT it will still be hot to finish of this shortened work-week


Forecast:

Tonight: Clear skies and muggy with lows 70-75°

Friday: Partly cloudy and muggy in the morning then a bit less muggy in the afternoon. Hot with highs near 90°

Saturday: Cooler in the morning (60-65°) with seasonable temperatures in the afternoon with highs 85-90°

Sunday: Variable clouds and again starting to feel more muggy. Highs near 90°


Discussion:

The forecast for next week is a hotter one…and that will be somewhat the main focus of today’s blog…however there are ways that we can get the worst heat pushed farther westwards should the upper air pattern cooperate with the area. As a matter of fact there are ways we could also get some rain in the region as well…so there is much to visit about today.

Right now though it is seasonably toasty and muggy out there. Temperatures at 2PM are 87° at KCI with a near 70° dew point…this is about average for us in early July. There is a weak front moving through the Plains now…but a casual glance at the temperatures behind the front reveals there’s NOT a lot of cool air with it.

Heck it’s over 100° in northern NE behind the “front”. In reality the bigger issue are the dew points and how they drop from the lower 70s in SE NE to the upper 30s in northern NE. That is some dry air…and that will be moving through tomorrow. Now typically we can get storms to fire along these boundaries…but the issue on Friday is that the boundary will be moving through during the daybreak hours…so there really won’t be that much instability for it to work with. With that said…I guess I wouldn’t be shocked IF there was an isolated storm around in the AM, especially south of KC towards the Lakes area.

Over the weekend we’ll be watching a few things…and would include the progress of various little waves coming from the NW>SE. One is forecast SAT to pass towards the west of KC towards central KS. These need to be watched because a farther east adjustment could certainly mean more clouds…and while not expected right now…could also mean showers moving from the NW>SE closer to the State Line. Odds would favor something happening farther towards central and SE KS during the 1st part of the day SAT.  Dew points will be in the 62-67° range I think Saturday…so a bit of a humidity break but not a huge one.

Sunday the dew points increase again back to seasonal averages (upper 60s-lower 70s+). That means a return to the real muggy stuff again.

We’ll still be in this NW flow aloft and it’s worth monitoring because as I’ve written about already this summer…those are chaotic flows for the models to handle with various little waves coming out of the Rockies into the Plains and then turning SEwards…those little buggers can create areas of rain/storms/ debris clouds that migrate through our region in various forms.

So let’s show you what I’m talking about…here is the forecast Saturday afternoon flow at around 18,000 feet or so…notice the winds are coming from the NW>SE.

Now notice what happens heading into next Tuesday evening (the 11th)

Notice how the better winds, denoted by the yellow and red-ish contours have shifted into the Lakes region…this tells me that the hotter air is spreading eastwards…this means hotter conditions locally.

This is because of a dome of high pressure that will be in the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere next week. It will, at times come into the Plains (we get hotter when that happens) and perhaps it may then drift back farther west into the Rockies (we may stay warm but are more vulnerable to these NW>SE type storm events. IF the dome stays more centered in the US…the storms go wayyyy north and then curl down through IL/IN/OH and we stay mainly dry. IF the dome retreats farther westwards, more towards the Rockies…then we get back into the edge of the “ring of fire”. Model solutions are somewhat varied, and while all agreeing on the heat…there are disagreements on the longevity of the worst of it (95-100°). One thing working in our favor of hold temperatures perhaps closer to the mid 90s is all the greenery out there as well as all the rain we’ve had lately in most areas. As we slowly dry out the ground though it will get hotter. The negative to all that water is the potential dew points that we may see…I really wonder IF we may be in line for dew points well into the 70s if not closer to 80° if there is not a lot of wind to stir things up.

Farther west where the air will be drier…yikes! Look at the forecast highs out there for TUE/WED/THU…we’re talking 105-110+°

Tuesday GFS forecast highs

Wednesday GFS forecast highs

Thursday GFS forecast highs

Now should the dome back farther west, perhaps it’s not that extreme all 3 days…but you get the point I think.

I think the point will be made for us next week.

Typical summer pattern. The last time it was 100° @ KCI was back on 9/8/2013.

Hottest summer days since 2000

We hit 100° 3 times last year in downtown KC though…the last being 8/11 with a high of 101°. On the 4th we hit 102°.

Our feature photo comes from tom Smith up in Smithville, MO…nice rainshaft!

Joe

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