Joe’s Weather Blog: Better but not better but a little better (SAT-7/23)

Well as of noon the temperature is 92° up at KCI with a dew point of 75° making the heat index around 103° and rising by the hour…another stifling afternoon out there for sure. There is a bit of a hot wind blowing so we’re get that working for us. I’m tracking a cold front towards NW MO and SE NE that will be inching our way (and falling apart as it does so). That front may be a trigger for some scattered storms this evening and overnight tonight. While the front should fall apart near or south of the area tomorrow, we should at least get a 5°+ break in the worst of the heat and hopefully a bit of a dew point break (perhaps more noticeable on Monday).


Forecast:

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered storms. Areas that get the storms may see some locally heavy rain (over 1″) come down in a short amount of time. There will also be a chance that there could be an isolated wind gust of near 60 mph from the storms as well. The activity may not be very widespread so IF you get the rain you’ll be fortunate. Lows back into the 70s (not as warm as this morning’s 81° low) Njot surprisingly there is a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for the area through 1AM Sunday morning…it does NOT include the whole region however.

Sunday: There could be a lingering area of scattered storms through mid morning…then we should start to see more sunshine. Highs will still be toasty…just NOT as obnoxious…more in the 90-95° range with a heat index closer to 100° as opposed to 110°+ in some area today.

Monday: It actually might be a more typical summer day We’ll get a bit of a break in the humidity and the highs should be a little closer to 90° or so.


Discussion:

For now it’s all about the temperatures as we struggle to get to 100°. I decided to forecast 99° as the official high for KC today (on the morning show). as of the noon hour we’re tracking the same as yesterday. we hit 98° yesterday afternoon. Meanwhile downtown KC is actually 1° less hot than yesterday through the noon hour. We’ll see how it goes the rest of the afternoon. Like I said…98…99…100…101° all is about the same. Dew points are the same as well so far…so the heat index this afternoon may challenge 110-115° in spots.

We’re not alone…some 10 million people (in the purple shading) are under “excessive heat warnings” today

At 1PM I’m watching a cold front on the latest weather map. 100°+ heat is out towards the SW of the KC region as of 1PM…

The cold front to the north of the KC area (at noon) will slowly creep southwards today. This front will run into the heat..the high dew points…the massive amount of available instability and winds that are blowing from the SW…and this should at least spark some scattered heavy thunderstorms in parts of the region. It’s impossible to say right now how much coverage there will be…but the chance is certainly there.

Let’s add in the NWS radar from Pleasant Hill into the conversation…again watch for bubbles of convection this evening out there (somewhere)

 

I thought I’d add in the latest HRRR model showing the convection and a rough idea of timing. This model does love generating convection and it may be overly generous but it may give you an idea that starting this evening…near or after sunset…the storm chances will be increasing. You’ll be able to see the bubbling clouds towards sunset to give you an idea that something may be trying to get together.

As I’ve written about and talked about…IF you have outside plans this evening and overnight…keep an eye on radar and have some rain protection just in case.

The front itself will wobble through the area overnight…but while there should be a wind shift towards the north overnight into Sunday, the amount of cooling is going to be slight (for Sunday). Temperatures above the ground will be about 2-5° cooler than today…so that should result in about a 4-7° drop in the temperatures on the ground. IF we can keep some residual clouds around longer Sunday…we could drop a bit more which would be helpful.

There will be a secondary front that moves through the area later Sunday. This WILL be a more noticeable change to the air mass as somewhat less hot weather and a definite drop in the dew points will move through the area on Monday. So Monday appears to be the most “comfortable” day in a while.

The nastier heat will gradually move back into the area starting Tuesday (mid 90s) then there may be a bit more relief down the road…including some rain chances later in the week.

The bottom line is after today (Saturday) the worst of the heat may be over with for awhile.

Our feature photo comes from Allen Robertson down on the farm…pretty shot.

As mentioned yesterday…I’m off next week…I might try and update the blog Sunday and or Monday but then I’ll be blog free for a solid week.

Joe

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