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Joe’s Weather Blog: Frisky evening/overnight storms (THU-8/10)

Good afternoon…another shorter blog today as my day has just flown by with various meetings…and I’m working on Eclipse graphics too. A couple of notes…1) there continues to be some haze/smoke in the air from wildfires burning out west and especially towards western Canada. You can definitely see it on the satellite pictures…2) there is a disturbance and a weak front from in from the west and north respectively that may create some scattered strong to potentially severe storms this evening and overnight.


Forecast:

Tonight: Sct strong to severe storms are possible. Not widespread but some of the storms should contain some locally heavy rains. Be alert to very localized flooding potential IF any of the storms affect your community. Also the storms may have the potential of 40-60 MPH winds too. Muggy with lows in the 60s

Friday: Any lingering activity ends towards daybreak then drier and a little less humid. Highs around 80° or so

Saturday: Overall OK with a cool morning near 60° and a pleasant afternoon…again near 82°

Sunday: A 30% chance of a storm with highs 80-85°


Discussion:

The 3PM surface map shows a seasonably weak cold front towards the north of the KC region…this front will slowly sink southwards tonight.

Notice the numbers in green…those are the dew points…and if you’ve been outside…you can feel a difference in the humidity today compared to previous days…it feels muggy. That’s because dew points are well into the 60s and really into the lower 70s…so it’s more typical of August out there from a “feel” standpoint although the temperatures are still below average.

There is also a cluster of strong to severe storms in the central parts of KS moving eastwards…associated with a disturbance…that is moving our way. How well it holds together though remains to be seen tonight.

As of 4PM this afternoon, while the southern side of it looks beefy with storms…and previously there was some big hail towards Goodland, KS and even a couple of tornado warnings…the northern side of the wave seems to be weakening as indicated by the radar echoes looking a bit more puny compared to what’s heading SE. Let’s watch that for this evening and overnight…that area and ahead of it, represents more lift and with dew points in the 70s locally it could be enough to spark some stronger storms. The issue is that by the time the “lift” arrives…the atmosphere will be stabilizing…so it’s a timing issue to get action firing up…it’s certainly worth keeping the chance in there…although the severe weather risk should fade towards 10PM or so…IF not earlier.

Tomorrow and Saturday and even Sunday (mostly) looks pretty tranquil. There are some signs of more seasonable temperatures heading our way towards the end of next week or next weekend…that, to me, is somewhat important because the more we can get into the warmer summer regime again, the more optimistic I will be for the solar eclipse viewing locally!

Our feature photo comes from Duanne Witte up towards Smithville Lake…this was taken earlier this month.

Joe

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