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Joe’s Weather Blog: Keeping an eye on Wednesday (MON-8/14)

A lot of different blogs for you to read….there’s part 1 of my Solar Eclipse blogthen part 2 was posted this morning…and then there is a matter of the weather as well for the week ahead,,,which is the purpose of this blog. My fingers may fall off after this week but it’s fun to have a LOT to write about! Let’s focus on a somewhat changeable week around the area…but I want to start with this…here we are on the 14th…and through the 1st 13 days of the month our average temperature is running 7.2° below average and are now #1 in terms of the coolest start to the month of August. Today will be the 20th straight day of NOT hitting at least 90° in KC (officially at KCI)


Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds with increasing breaks of sunshine as the day moves along. Somewhat warmer and more humid than it has been though with highs around 84°

Tonight: partly cloudy and muggy with lows well into the 60s

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and muggy. Highs into the mid 80s again

Wednesday: Thunderstorm chances will be around off/on all day. The time-frame to watch for perhaps heavier storms (or severe storms) is towards the later afternoon and evening. That is subject to change though. Highs again into the low.mid 80s.

Thursday: A nicer day with lower humidity…highs in the lower 80s.


Discussion:

I went through the records and I did find 2 previous Augusts where we didn’t hit 90° at all for the month…1915 and 1950. There have been about 10 Augusts that we only hit 90° once. At this point until the last week of August I don’t think we get there @ KCI…let’s see what happens then.

This morning, as I look at radar…there are some cells across northern MO…that is actually part of the area that could use some rain…

By the time you look at this blog though…that activity may wane…

Clouds have certainly increased though overnight and as I’ve written in some previous blogs…forecasting cloud cover and the extensiveness of it for a 5-10 minute span 1 week out is ludicrous at this point. Imagine IF we woke up next Monday with these clouds in place…we’d be sweating the forecast of whether or not there would be significant breaks in time for the eclipse (but I digress).

The next few days will be characterized by a more noticeable muggy feel to the air…and temperatures running closer to average overall. As the humidity builds and the moisture throughout the atmosphere thickens up…we’l be watching ac old front approach the area on Wednesday. That front will be the main weather feature of the week…and one that needs to be watched for the potential of stronger storms capable of perhaps some severe weather and also some locally heavy rains…1-3″.

Here is the set-up for Wednesday…

Wednesday 7PM forecast map

A cold front will be coming into the area from the Plains region later in the day and towards Wednesday. Ahead of the front warm and moist air will be streaming northwards from the Gulf area…that process has actually already started since we can “feel” the mugginess” the air already. As we get into Wednesday this moisture will get thicker and thicker in the atmosphere. More moisture in the atmosphere means that what storms do form should be more efficient rain producers.

There are though some questions including how unstable we will get during the day…with there be off/on showers/storms during the day to reduce the instability when the front gets closer to the area…will there be some disturbance(s) that come up from the SW ahead of the front to create additional “appetizer” clusters of rain/showers…again potentially depleting the overall moisture in the atmosphere for the front’s arrival? So the severe weather risk is by no means a slam dunk…but given the right circumstances…we could have some frisky storms form.

Our model data isn’t convincing either which way…its showing some activity during the 1st part of the day…and that certainly can happen. It also is showing an attempt for the atmosphere to start “recovering” later in the afternoon and that too is reasonable…so let’s put this on the proverbial radar screen to follow. Again certainly not a slam dunk severe weather day…if nothing else though the storms will produce some locally heavy rains in the region. Too early for much more than that.

Our feature photo comes from Heith Carrahan out towards Blue Springs earlier this month.

Joe

 

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