Joe’s Weather Blog: Fading Harvey and Irma may be an issue (THU-8/31)
Good afternoon…another stunning day out there with some clouds helping to keep temperatures from popping once again today. As of 2PM we’re in the upper 70s. August will end more than 5° below average. This will end up being the 4th coolest August in KC weather history and the wettest August in KC weather history with over 10″ of rainfall. We only hit 90° once this month…the record is actually never hitting 90° in August…that occurred in 1915 and 1950.
Tonight: Clearing evening skies and cool with lows around 60°
Friday: Some patchy AM fog…then much like today…sunny followed by clouds developing. Highs around around 80°
Saturday: There may be some scattered showers/storms in the area through the 1st part of the day…then variable clouds in the afternoon with highs again around 80°
Sunday: Partly cloudy and warmer…we’ll call it seasonable with highs in the mid 80s.
Monday: A cold front will be coming into the area…we should heat up though ahead of the front with highs near 90°. There may be a stray storm with the front…right now the chances are about 20-30%
Harvey has been downgraded finally…but yet…it’s the storm that won’t die. Tornadoes and flooding rains are still and issue with this thing and may be a factor even into the weekend.
You can clearly see it still spinning away…in western MS this afternoon
It is still creating some big storms…and the storms are rotating in some areas…which is not unusual…a Tornado Watch is in effect for that region as well. Thankfully only 2 reports so far late this afternoon
Over the weekend…more rain will fall…and some of it will cause flooding. Some 4-8″ of rain is forecast for some areas of TN and KY
Meanwhile as we transition away from the meteorological part of Harvey…we have to start talking about the newest hurricane that quickly formed today…this is Irma.
Irma is WAYYYYY out in the eastern Atlantic (right now). It’s moving westwards and may take a bit more of a west-south-west turn later in the weekend.
Irma this afternoon is already at 100 MPH and will become a major hurricane tonight or tomorrow…this one will be a beast…and at least for the next 5 days, only the fish have to worry about the future of Irma.
Beyond that though it gets more complicated. That WSW movement means (assuming it happens) that the Caribbean will be in play for this down the road…initially the Windward Islands then from there it gets dicier. Does it make a more WNW turn towards Cuba (or above Cuba?) Our EURO model in 10 days has a major hurricane ripping through the FL Keys region. The GFS model harmlessly turns this out to see well off the eastern US…Bermuda could have an issue with this according to that particular model.
It appears a large part of this may be determined by a “blocking” ridge to the north of the future of Irma. Take a look a the comparison of 2 models that follows (look at the TOP LEFT map and the TOP RIGHT map…use the slider bar to go right (EURO model) and left (GFS model). Notice how the HIGH to the north of the hurricane is farther south of the EURO model…that keeps the storm more on a west trajectory by “blocking” it’s northward path
Now if the HIGH is weaker or farther north…that would allow the hurricane to start taking a more northward movement and potentially even make a ‘recurve” out to sea.
It’s far too early to get too deep into this…but there are more and a few ensemble runs of the EURO model that tell me…let’s not neglect the future of this storm for awhile…then end points on this “spaghetti” plot represent the positions the model thinks are in the realm of possibilities by the 10th.
The majority show a more SE US threat as opposed to a Gulf of Mexico threat…but we’re very early in the game. What there is consensus of is that this will be a beast of a hurricane over the next 5 days or so.
Finally I looked at some satellite pictures of the flooding from Harvey…with Harvey now bringing in drier air towards eastern TX…the picture taken today really shows the ongoing drainage from land to the Gulf…notice the colors near the coastline…that is the sediment (and other things) flowing out.
It’s tough to find a comparison shot for there considering that during teh summer months in the humidity there is often a pretty stout cumulus cloud field blocking the terrain…so I went back to May to see how things compared…
You have to look real close…but you can see the differences.
Here is another way of looking…
Our feature photo comes from Mindy Elliot out towards Marshall, MO