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Joe’s Weather Blog: Saturday Irma update

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Another update to this blog will come later this afternoon…probably before 5PM or so…I will be doing another Facebook Live (Joe Lauria Fox 4 Meteorologist) at 5PM as well with more information.

Our weather here is KC is quiet…highs for the 5 days…about 80-85°…no rain till at least next weekend.

Irma continues to straddle the northern Cuba coastline and Cuba has done a number on the power of Irma. Overnight the storm weakened and while, as of this writing the Hurricane Center is carrying winds of 130 MPH (low end Category 4 hurricane)…I don’t think the winds are even at that strength. The hurricane has been thrown for a loop by the land interaction…even though the eye of the storm mostly stayed over the water during the overnight.


Radar from Key West shows the hurricane nicely…still more than 150 miles from the Keys…it’s more or less due south of Miami…so this takes the east coast of FL out of landfall (not out of the strong winds…tornadic threats…some storm surge and flooding)

If you look at the enhanced satellite pictures…you can tell there have been some changes to the storms power…

It just looks off compared to yesterday evening and a couple of days ago when the winds were 185 MPH.

Here is the latest track from the Hurricane Center…

A lot of folks are wondering when the strongest winds will affect their area of interest…this next map shows the timing of the winds in excess of 40 MPH…

I’ve also mentioned that on top of everything else…tornadoes, like what we saw in Harvey are also possible…today and tomorrow.

This biggest concern is the flooding from storm surge tomorrow and Monday along the western part of FL from the Keys northwards.

So we’ve come quite a ways from the original idea that eastern FL would be hit…to now western FL being in the cross hairs…but in reality from 4-5 days out…essentially things have change about 100 miles…so that isn’t a bad forecast to a certain degree…the issue is that while eastern FL may still get rocked by 80-100+ MPH winds (since the hurricane is so large…now western FL is really in trouble with this.

There are about 25,000 customers already without power in southern FL…and there’s already trees coming down in the Keys because of the outer bands of Irma

IF you’re wondering about areas farther north towards GA and elsewhere…certainly a lot of rain…still 50-75 MPH winds possible…

I’ll get another update out later today…I still think Irma has tricks up it’s sleeve regarding the north turn…we’ll see. Again those waters, once it gets farther from Cuba, are primed and ready to strengthen the storm…if it decides to strengthen,


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