Joe’s Weather Blog: Irma makes landfall (again) (SUN-9/10)

Good Sunday to you…as we continue to enjoy spectacular late summer weather in the KC region. We may see some clouds move in today…but I’m not expecting any rain locally for this coming week. The dry weather continues…today is the 14th straight dry day in the metro…and right now…no rain is likely till at the earliest next weekend.

Meanwhile our weather eyes are on Irma…it made a brief “island-fall” 1st thing this morning. I was tracking it for you on the air as the winds were gusting to 100-110 mph in the FL Keys as they were being raked by the northern eyewall. Then the winds dropped off as the eye went through the lower keys.

Latest radar on a broad scale shows the amount of rain that’s falling in the SE part of the country…mostly because of the hurricane.

Closer radar from the NWS in Miami shows the core of Irma…

Irma has started to pick up more of a north pace…this is interesting and important because IF Irma continues moving this way…it’s possible that the eye may come ashore a bit farther south than current thinking…this would be crucial in the storm surge flooding that we’re so worried about in SW FL. a farther south landfall would help that cause immensely.

With that said…hurricanes seem to “dislike” coming across land from the ocean. As we saw Friday night/Saturday…it kept skirting the Cuban coastline but never really come inland all that far. Let’s see IF Irma tries the same song and dance with the SW FL coast. The official track from the NHC is below…

A few isolated tornadoes are also possible today across southern and central FL…into tonight and a Tornado Watch is also in effect for most of the southern half of FL…and that will get expanded northwards later today and tonight. There have been a few warnings and one potential brief touchdown in Hardee, FL

The storm is a large one…even some 125 miles away…towards Miami there have been wind gusts around 100 MPH. As of this morning power is out for almost 1 million customers in Florida and they won’t try and get repairs down till the storm winds down and it’s safe…so it could be awhile.

There has been some structural damage in the Keys. US 1, the only road in/out of the Keys is under water. In Miami…so many cranes…

The storm surge in the Key West area was in excess of 4 feet…they were on the western side of the eye…that reduces the surge compared to the eastern side.

On the subject of water…we’re seeing several videos of the water being drained from various bays ahead of the hurricane. This has happened in the Bahamas and also in SW Florida too…

 

Meanwhile In Naples, FL…the same thing is happening…

As I talked about yesterday…this is caused by winds that blow the water out…the winds have to be pretty strong and persistent to achieve this…it’s not uncommon for big storms to do this in the Great Lakes…we call this phenomena a “seiche”. I’ve also seen the phrase “negative storm surge” referred to as well. I’ve never hear of the latter term before though…

The concern as mentioned earlier is now towards the SW FL coast…and the surge situation. I wrote more about this yesterday…but here are some specifics…again IF the hurricane changes it’s course…and goes farther south and inland…these values will be too high…and that is the hope and prayer of millions of people who either live there or have visited.

Here are the forecast surge totals…over 3 feet for many areas is NOT good…over 6 feet is bad…over 9 feet is really bad…considering the elevation for many areas down there…along the coast are less than 10 feet.

You can clearly see my concern. This is the 10AM forecast…let’s see how the eye of the storm does later today. Again all that wind blowing in a counter clockwise manner around the eye of the hurricane takes the water and sends it into the bays/rivers/inlets etc along the Florida west coast.

More on Irma later today or tonight…

Have a great Sunday….

Joe

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s