Joe’s Weather Blog: The problem of Maria (TUE-9/19)

Good morning…

There are a few showers/storms east of the metro area early this Tuesday morning…once those fade away this morning there won’t be much rain around here for the next few days. Actually this last week of summer is going to be rather like summer…as temperatures and humidity levels will be more like August than late September. The A/C’s will be working pretty good I think…and it appears the hotter weather will linger through the weekend before cooler weather moves in to start the week next week.


Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy and warmer. Highs well into the 80s. Breezy too in the afternoon especially…gusts of 20-30 MPH possible

Tonight: Fair skies…with lows in the 70s

Wednesday: Hot and humid with a slight chance of evening/night storms in the area. Highs 85-90° and muggy

Thursday: Not much change with highs well into the 80s


Discussion:

Aside from a weak and dying front coming towards the area later tomorrow…the main weather story for the KC region will be the heat and a run of late summer humidity heading towards the weekend. Fall starts on Friday but from today through Sunday it will certainly feel more like the middle of summer around the area.

That weakening front may trigger some isolated storms later tomorrow…I don’t think there will be widespread coverage though at this point.

So really there isn’t a lot to chat about locally.

Onwards to Maria…

This thing is nasty…it made a brief landfall on the Island of Dominica in the Caribbean last night…and odds are it devastated the island. At the time of landfall it was a storm with the potential of 160 mph winds and it was a category 5 hurricane. As far as the Island goes…it doesn’t look good or promising right now.

During landfall…the Prime Minister of Dominica…sent this out…as his roof was being torn off.

Maria’s circulation might have been briefly interrupted by some of the mountains of the Island, and to maintain it’s tremendous power conditions need to be perfect…so when it moves over land…they’re not perfect anymore…but now that it’s back in the waters again…and warm water at that…it’s getting it’s strength back and is a category 5 once again.

The next area to be VERY concerned for are the ravaged Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. For PR this is probably going to be VERY bad unless some unforeseen eye wobble spares them.

The last cat 5 hurricane to hit the Island was in 1928…and the last cat 4 to hit was in 1899. Most recently Hugo in 1989 hit as a cat 3 storm. As a matter of fact only 4 category 4+ hurricanes have ever hit the island itself in recorded weather history

It’s been a brutal hurricane season for this part of the world.

With it’s landfall in Dominica… it’s only the 2nd time on record two different Atlantic Category 5s have made landfall in the same season (2007)

It seems category 5 hurricanes are the them this season…but really they’re rare things.

Now I should mention that since the 1960s with the advent of satellites and recon flights into these storms…there may have been many other strong hurricanes that we have no idea about (actually there were) unless a ship sailed through the storm by mistake. So while it may seem like there are stronger hurricanes right now…history and common sense would say that there were others that we had no idea about before the 1960s

The graphic above encompasses A lot of hurricane seasons…

Here is the latest information of the storm…again note the islands in the path…especially PR and the Virgin Islands. It should also be noted that after what Irma did to the Virgin Islands…PR is being used as a staging area for helping the Virgin Islands recover…so there are a lot of assets there.

You can see the other fringes of the eye of Maria on the radar from San Juan…

As far as whether or not Maria will affect the mainland US…right now there are indications that Jose, which is creating pounding surf and coastal erosion in the northeast quad of the USA may influence Maria’s future next week. How the 2 storms “play” together remains to be seen but odds favor Maria to take a track towards Jose, which will be getting “stuck” over the weekend between Bermuda and Nova Scotia. This is Jose…

What should happen is eventually in a bout a week or so…Jose will wander and start to fade in the northern Atlantic then Maria should follow Jose well off the eastern seaboard. So after Maria rips through Puerto Rico and the far eastern Bahamas…it may not hit land again for quite some time. I should mention that the Turks and Caicos Islands are also in line to get hammered again.

Another busy next few days watching this devastating storm rip through some areas…while our weather continues to be quiet as it all happens.

Our feature photo comes from Greg Neubauer..pretty sunset from Saturday night!

Joe

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