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Joe’s Weather Blog: Toasty weekend but big changes Tuesday (FRI-9/22)

Good Friday afternoon…another toasty day out there now with temperatures at the 2PM hour once again in the upper 80s. Factoring in the dew points which are close to 70-75°…the heat index this afternoon is round 95°. Hot of the 1st day of fall…which starts as you read this blog (3:02 PM). The weather over the weekend will not change all that much BUT there will be important changes next week…and it will feel like fall out there…we just have to wait.


Forecast:

Tonight: Clear and muggy with lows 70-75°

Saturday>Sunday: Partly cloudy and hot with highs 85-90°. Breezy as well with gusts to 25 mph possible.

Monday: Variable clouds with a chance of PM showers/storms with increasing chances overnight into Tuesday. Highs Monday in the mid 80s


Discussion:

Well fall is now here in KC..but judging from the 2PM observations in the area…pretty darn hot out there…and muggy too!

The “HX” on the right side…indicates the heat index.

Mid 90s…pretty impressive for the start of fall in KC.

While we’re not breaking record highs…we did break a record “warm” low yesterday and missed tying today’s record warm low by 1°. Other places in the upper Midwest are setting record highs…between yesterday and today.

In Milwaukee…it’s 94°, breaking their record high for the day…and making today the hottest day of the year…on the 1st day of fall! Chicago has also broken their record high today (at least 93°).

So the heat that’s in place will stay with us through the weekend…BUT there are changes ahead. You may have heard about the snow across the western part of the country in the higher elevations…

The storm that is across the western part of the country, that you can see swirling on the latest water vapor loop will be moving towards the NE over the next few days…this will gradually send a slow moving cold front into the Plains over the weekend.

As that front moves into the Plains…rather persistent rains will be falling towards the west of the KC area later in the weekend. Notice how much rain will fall through the western Plains…that’s good moisture for them through Sunday afternoon.

That slow moving front will move towards us later on Monday…as it does our rain chances will increase on Monday afternoon. The timing of the front will dictate the timing of the better rain chances but if nothing else, notice what happens Monday afternoon with temperatures…these are modeled highs for Monday and notice the contrast between here and region out to the west.

 

Those are 55-60° highs through central KS and most of NE…that’s some cool air…and it will be flowing our way later Monday into Tuesday. That’s why I’m being aggressive with the cool-down that I’m expecting in our area + as the cooler air comes in…and with the flow aloft being from the SSW>NNE…that means that a lot of moisture will be overriding the front…and should that set-up…and we’re fighting rain for the 1st part of the day on Tuesday…it’s tough to see how we warm up much at all from whatever we are in the morning. Right now I’m forecasting 69° BUT I can see how it could be a few degrees cooler.

Wednesday and Thursday look spectacular with comfortable weather in the area.

That’s it for today…I’ll be spending my day on Saturday with the Scouting 500 out at Kansas Speedway so no time for a blog…and I’m not sure about Sunday yet…so have a great weekend. I’ll get another update out on Monday at the latest.

Our feature photo comes from Savannah Whitesell…taken in Paola, KS

Joe

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