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Joe’s Weather Blog: Fall temperatures on the way (SUN-9/24)

Good Sunday afternoon! Another hot and humid day by late September standards with temperatures heading up to near 90° and dew points well into the 60s…it’s muggy. The heat index this afternoon will be closer to 95° again for many areas around the region. There is a rather sigificant change coming in the next 48 hours or so…so that on Tuesday you may need a sweater by the evening as temperatures really drop off.


Forecast:

Tonight: Mostly clear and muggy again with lows in the 60s to near 70°

Monday: Partly cloudy skies, hot and humid with highs 85-90°. Heat index near 90-95°. It’s not out of the question there could be a brief afternoon shower in the area.

Monday night: Mostly dry in the evening, maybe a stray shower…but rain chances will increase after 12AM Tuesday. warm in the evening. Lows near 60°

Tuesday: Rain chances in the morning then cooler and lower humidity. Highs in the 60s!

Wednesday: Filtered sunshine with highs in the 60s


Discussion:

Well things are going to change around the KC region over the next few days. Temperatures for the month of September are now running about 3° above average (including today). We’ll get another above average day in on Monday but Tuesday will turn much cooler it appears.

This is one of the warmest runs of heat from the 18th through the 24th in KC weather history. There have been warmer ones though.

Interestingly last September from the 19th through the 24th we had quite the run as well of summer heat…it broke on the 25th…this year it will go for one more day breaking on the 26th

Also notice when it broke..the following high temperatures…my suspicion is the same may happen again this year with a string of below average highs on the way. Average by the way will be around 75° for the rest of the week.

The cold front is really more of a stationary front (for now) across the western Plains region. at 1PM the surface map shows the temperatures (in red) as quite varied from the east to the west.

The front should move into the area Tuesday morning and there should be at least some rain with it…but I’m not overly confident in the amount of rain that we’ll get. Let’s go with 1/10th-3/4″ of moisture for many areas although potentially less farther east of the KC area with more possible farther west.

The timing of the front appears to be early Tuesday morning with the cooler air spreading in as the day unfolds. Notice the temperature drop…from the mid-upper 80s tomorrow…to the 60s on Tuesday. AS a matter of fact it may be struggle to warm up out of the 60s on Tuesday…let’s run with 65-70 for PM highs Tuesday with perhaps a bit of sunshine helping the cause.

Monday afternoon at 4PM

Tuesday morning

Tuesday afternoon

IF we don’t get any late afternoon sunshine…we may struggle much above 65° in the afternoon.

Certainly the cooler temperatures now across the western Plains would support this.

Then we’ll be in the fall air mass for the rest of the week and into next weekend.

There is not a lot of rain coming after Tuesday so when we get then will have to do it for us for quite some time it appears. The longer term prognosis is somewhat below average as well heading towards early October…but after the 1st few days…I think we’ll warm up again…although not to the extent of what we’re seeing out there now.

So the odds favor cooler and drier weather through the 1st few days of October.

We’re losing about 2-3 minutes of daylight each day right now as we descend towards the 1st day of winter as the sun angle gets lower and lower in the sky.

Other items…

Maria…

Unfortunately the more we hear coming from the Puerto Rico area…the more the bad news is…power will be out for a LONG time…not weeks…months. Cell phone service is mostly out…although there are some spotty areas of reception. Some do have electricity, provided by generators, but those generators need fuel…and that is something that is getting harder and harder to find.

So no power means no A/C or fans in the heat and humidity…then there’s this.

That’s not a good combination at all.

The safe to drink water situation may be the most critical component of all this. That is a developing issue that is worsening the situation on a daily basis.

Maria is off the SE part of the country today and will slowly get closer to the outer banks of North Carolina towards the middle of the week.

It will need to be monitored because it may actually get a bit closer to the outer banks…and the winds there may get rather strong towards mid week. Here is the EURO forecast showing 45-55 MPH winds near the Outer Banks…during Wednesday afternoon.

Pounding surf and more beach erosion will occur as the week moves along.

While 2005 will go down as the most active season in terms of named storms (28)…this year is noteworthy for the intensity of the hurricanes that we have had so far…

A major hurricane has winds over 110 MPH.

That’s it for today…I should get another update out on Monday…have a feeling after Tuesday there may be some blog free days coming with a lack of weather for awhile.

Finally a word of thanks to the folks who I talked too yesterday at the #Scouting500 at the Kansas Speedway. Some mentioned reading the weather blog and using it as a resource for in depth weather information…

Our feature photo comes from Steve Klingler Sr. Pretty sunset taken in Olathe a few days ago.

Joe

 

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