Joe’s Weather Blog: Big changes in less than 24 hours! (MON-9/25)

Good morning…today will be the “last” day of the real summer “feels” for quite some time (perhaps till next spring?). Temperatures will again pop well into the 80s…and the dew points will be well into the 60s…but a cold front to the west of the region will be on the move later today and will significantly change the temperatures in the area over the next 24 hours. Get the Pumpkin Spice ready because while we’ll still be mild overnight…the trend is down for Tuesday…by about 20 degrees!


Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny>partly cloudy, warm and humid with highs around 87°. There is a small chance of some isolated showers developing although towards NW MO and NE KS the chances are better this afternoon.

Tonight: Clouds increasing but overall still a mild night. Whatever we are at 12AM-6AM may actually turn out out to be the high temperature for Tuesday…so it’s possible that we could be 70-75° in that time frame. Showers are possible…maybe a few rumbles of thunder as well.

Tuesday: Turning cooler as the morning moves along…and IF we have some rain in the area we may tank to 60-65° before leveling off in the mid-upper 60s in the afternoon. Perhaps some sunshine in the PM?

Wednesday: Fighting some high clouds for awhile. Lows in the morning in the 50s with highs in the afternoon only in the 60s again.


Discussion:

Would you be surprised If I told you that the period from the 19th-24 of LAST year was actually hotter than what we’ve been through this year from the 19th-24th. Last year it broke on the 25th…this year…it will break on the 26th.

So change is coming and we can clearly see it on the latest regional map…note the 7AM temperatures that are in RED. Brrrr across the Plains region….note all the 40s!

There have been some subtle changes in our local weather over the last several days…one is that the dew points which were in the 70-75° a couple of days ago are now in the 63-67° range..so there has been a reduction in the “muggy” factor out there..somewhat. Not as humid has it has been. The other change has been a slooooow advancement of the front out to the west of the area. This will creep into the region overnight into Tuesday morning…that will change our weather.

The model data hasn’t been overly generous with the rainfall totals in the region from this transition…perhaps 1/4″ or less tomorrow. I’ll stay hopeful some areas could do better, but the chances of that happening are more towards the west and northwest of KC. Let’s get radar in there so you can track the rain as it develops.

Yesterday there were some showers/storms near and north of Topeka…again I won’t be shocked if something isolated could form closer to the state line this afternoon.

Here is the short term HRRR model showing the possible evolution of rain as the day/night moves along. Notice the slow eastwards creep of the moisture reaching the ground. That rain, behind the front, is also helping to cool the air mass that is on the way to the area Tuesday. I wrote about this last week…and has been one of the reasons I’ve been so bullish about the cool transition…moreso than most model output. Now let’s see how thinkgs play out to see if that was an accurate call.

The rains that have fallen across the western Plains have been good soaking rains for the farmers out there. Over th elast 24 hours some areas have had over 1-2″ of rain…and with the dry trends showing up over the next week or so…that may do it for them for awhile

Back home…it’s been an overall dry month of September that briefly was interrupted by a few consecutive days of rain about 10 days ago. Whatever we get tonight/tomorrow should do it for the rest of the month. After today not much is expected for awhile. Another cold front comes this weekend but that may struggle to have much moisture to work with. The EURO model does have a digging upper level wave for Sunday>Monday…coming down through the Plains…that remains to be seen. If true we could get some decent rain from that…perhaps even some thunderstorms.

Just looking at the overall weather pattern though…you can see it’s trying to transition. This happens every year as the jet stream starts to strengthen energized by increasing temperature gradients from the ground upwards as the nights get longer and longer towards the pole and the air gets cooler and colder up towards the north of the USA.

Finally today I wanted to show you how Maria is doing today…it’s barely a hurricane but is still generating a lot of ocean waves and swell battering the coastal areas of the Mid Atlantic states.

The satellite pictures are still showing a nice broad circulation but now Maria is going over waters stirred up from Jose over the past 10 days…and it’s fuel source is sort of contaminated by the rough waves that brought up cooler ocean waters. As you may remember hurricanes need warm water…not cool water for energy…plus Maria is also now getting mixed in with some stronger winds aloft that are adding a bit of shear into the storms outflow…also not a good recipe for intensification.

We’re hearing more and more about the devastation in Puerto Rico and I’ve been fearing the worst about this for days now an sadly…it’s not good. No power…more than 95% of cell service being out and a diminishing safe water reserve (all of which can’t really be improved upon a lot for months) equals a prolonged time of suffering for the people there…a US territory that has a tremendous amount of poverty to begin with.

I’ve been curious about the doppler radar unit that the NWS in San Juan used until communications were lost. I was hopeful that it was because of communication lines being own…or power outages…but yesterday we saw what happened to the radar…and it’s not pretty.

The radars are typically built to handle winds of upwards of about 130 MPH…the winds with Maria at radar height were likely higher…and if you’re wondering what a typical doppler radar looks like…

No bueno…and that is a situation to also will take months to repair. There was only one radar serving the island as well.

Not a good situation and sadly odds are more people will die from the after effects of Maria than died during the actual storm itself.

Our feature photo comes from mason Rose. He was participating in the Scouting 500 out at Kansas Speedway over the weekend. I was out there talking to hundreds of scouts and their parents about the weather and meteorology. He was kind enough to want a picture…

Joe

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s