Joe’s Weather Blog: Warmer winds and rainy days (SUN-10/1)

Good afternoon. There were a few brief showers out there today, northern MO has some extra rain compared to others but for the most part it was enough to get the ground wet but not much else. Variable clouds are still out there this afternoon and temperatures today will end up well into the 70s before the day is done. It gets warmer over the next couple of days and then a cold front will move into the area…on Friday’s blog there were dependencies on when the front actually gets into KC…and today there are still questions about the location and the strength of that front for the middle of the week.


Forecast:

Tonight: Partly cloudy and breezy with lows in the mid 60s

Monday: Partly cloudy windy and warmer with highs around 85°. Winds may gust to 35 MPH

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with some scattered PM showers possible…breezy and warm with highs 78-83°.  winds gusting to 25 MPH possible

Wednesday: Rain and storms possible…not as warm with highs in the 70s (depending on the location of the front). Some locally heavy rain is possible.


Discussion:

I’ll be on vacation starting Monday for a couple of weeks…so the blogs will be intermittent and more connected to any active weather…but there will be updates…not really going anywhere…more or less a staycation type thing. I wanted to just give you a heads up.

Meanwhile our quiet weather (mostly) is starting to come to an end. Things will be getting more active, as a matter of fact the Rockies are expecting some decent snows over the next few days…

There are some beefy 2-3 FOOT totals in the highest elevations…not bad for early October.

Today there may be some severe weather across parts of the western Plains…a few supercells are possible out there…including the risk of perhaps a tornado or two.

The 12PM surface map shows southerly flow establishing itself in the region. The air at the surface though is still pretty dry…dew points are around 50-55° while the juicier air is confined towards the SW Plains into W Texas and also well south of the area…that juicier air will come northwards over the next 24 hours.

That’s an important component to the evolution of the more serious rain chances in the KC region towards mid week.

The front will slowly come through the Plains MON>TUE…there are still issues in my mind about how far to KC it can get as the flow aloft is actually helping to keep the best push to the front well towards the NW of KC. Actually an upper level ridge is going to be building through the south central part of the USA…so there should be a rather strong contrast to the weather from the Rockies (wintry) through the Plains (summery).

The upper level high though is what we call “dirty”. There are going to be little waves rotating around the northern extent of it…and those waves will be interacting with the front that should be somewhere near the region on Wednesday. You can see this more clearly as we go up to about 18,000 feet or so. This is the NAM model which may be somewhat overdone with these small/localized areas of “lift” that it’s depicting but you get the idea…the region from W MO though KS into W OK and W TX will be vulnerable to these waves riding around the upper level high center towards the ARLATX area…

Map via NEXLAB…my annotations

Those waves will have a LOT of moisture in the atmosphere to work with…as a matter of fact check out the GFS model forecast for mid-day Wednesday…

All that moisture + waves coming up from the southwest + lift + the front that will be “somewhere” in the region is concerning to me for the potential of locally heavy rains of 1-4″…perhaps more depending on exactly how things set up in the area. That axis of heaviest rain is still very fuzzy in terms of where it sets up…but it bears watching. We can actually use a good rain but perhaps not to the extreme.

FWIW (For What It’s Worth) the GFS model is showing a 5″+ bullseye towards Franklin/Miami County, KS by later Thursday afternoon…now remember this is JUST a model forecast…and there are a lot of things that have to set-up for that to happen…and considering I’m NOT confident exactly WHERE the front will be on Wednesday…let’s just file that in the back of our minds for now.

So let’s pay attention to the mid week situation…like I mentioned, the front’s position is a bit of an “X factor” in all this. There are various model forecasts on where it’s going to be and I have a feeling that will help to dictate where the axis of heaviest rain will be located. Right now it appears that WEDNESDAY will be a rather soggy day in the KC area.

Our feature photo comes from Debbie Green…there were some great sunrise pictures yesterday!

Joe

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