Joe’s Weather Blog: Multi day rain event on the way (MON-10/2)

Good Monday morning…warmer weather is on tap for the region for the next couple of days as higher dew points will also come into play too. The dew point as a matter of fact has increased markedly since 12AM this morning, going from 50° range to near 65° after daybreak. That’s actually a pretty big increase in about a 6 hour stretch. So it will fell more like spring out there as well for a few days too. The main weather story will be the winds today…and the rain for the middle of the week.


Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and warm. Temperatures today should top off in the mid 80s with dew points in the mid 60s. Windy too with gusts to 35 mph possible in the afternoon.

Tonight: Fair skies and mild with lows 65-70°

Tuesday: Variable clouds, there may be a few fast moving showers scattered in the region in the afternoon. Windy but probably not as windy as today. Gusts to 25 MPH possible. Highs in the 77-82° range

Wednesday: Off/On rain possible and not as warm. Highs in the mid 70s


Discussion:

I did some number crunching…and for the period from 1/1-9/30 this year…our average temperature is the 24th warmest (records back to 1890) in KC weather history…not too shabby. The month has started out warm and will stay mild to warm for several more days as a cold front to the NW of KC…creeps towards the region.

As a matter of fact this is the 4th year this century with that distinction, through the 1st 9 months of the year…you can see hot warm the 1930s were though…there are 7 different years in this list from that decade alone compared to 3 this decade.

The warmth has continued into the start of October…and the next couple of days will continue that. Highs/lows will be running 10-15° above average into Tuesday and even perhaps from a low standpoint into Wednesday as well. Highs at least will be more reminiscent of mid June than early October…so I guess really it’s “Juntober” out there for a couple of days.

The morning surface map shows a front across the Plains…I’ve drawn it in as a cold front but in reality it’s really more like a stationary front…not moving much at all…

The air behind the front really isn’t “that” cold…and the winds behind the front are rather light…so the front doesn’t exactly have a lot of “push” to it any more. During the late afternoon/night there have been storms that fire ahead of the front that give it a bit of a push but it’s going to take it’s sweet time pushing through the region…as a matter of fact there may be more severe weather out towards the west of the region later today…yesterday there were a couple of brief tornadoes out there too!

Meanwhile towards the Rockies…the air aloft is cold enough to support snow…and lots of it in the higher elevations…

In yesterday’s blog I showed you how weak little disturbances will be an issue for the area through the end of the weak. Those disturbances will generate lift that should create areas of rain and storms moving towards the northeast and east-north-east. This will effectively allow the front to push south for a bit…then when a new disturbance comes towards the area the front will stop and perhaps lift northwards a bit…then do the whole thing all over again. It will take a much stronger wave to actually push the front through the region…which may not happen till the weekend. So as a result we’re going to have multiple opportunities of seeing rain move through the region from later Tuesday through Saturday it appears.

As mentioned as well yesterday, the atmosphere will be loaded with moisture during the middle and latter part of the week. That’s the reason why there will be locally heavy rains with some of the storms/rain clusters moving through the region.

Exactly where the heaviest rain axis set’s up though…remains to be seen. Model data has had it all over the place but using some broad strokes…I’d say the region could see 1-4″ of rain between later Tuesday and Saturday. It won’t rain all the time (obviously) and there may be many hours of dry time mixed in, depending on where the front waffles back and forth (south to north…north to south)…so the bottom line is to have an umbrella with you for a few days.

Model data though is pretty unanimous for decent to heavy rain in the region…

EURO Model

EURO Ensemble

GFS Model

I think you get the idea…some local areas may see over 4″ of rain per the models above…

Another note…temperature forecasting this week will be all over the place depending on the front placement…when it goes north…we may be milder…IF there is a southward drop…it will be cooler…and my guess is that that component of the forecast may be rather variable…although it appears THU>FRI the front will be drifting back towards the north again IF it gets to the KC area to begin with on Wednesday.

On another note…

Yesterday was the 1st time in about 38 days that there wasn’t a named storm in the Atlantic Basin of the tropics…there has been a named storm every day till yesterday which is amazing…

and finally this note from the NWS in Key West regarding Irma…

Recovery there and in TX and FL and PR continues…

Our feature photo comes from Joanie Zetmeir Douglas of the beautiful sunset out towards Hermann, MO along the MO River yesterday

Joe

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