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Joe’s Weather Blog: IF this was winter…(MON-10/9)

Well a beautiful day out there to start a Monday…skies are bright and sunny and the air is nice and crisp. Tomorrow though will be a vastly different day…and it’s one of the reminders that fall is certainly here. You will feel about 30° cooler tomorrow compared to this afternoon…and there might be at least some rain to boot as well.


Forecast:

Today: Partly sunny and pleasant with highs into the 70s

Tonight: Increasing clouds with lows in the 50s…showers possible later tonight

Tuesday: Showers likely and blustery with chillier temperatures. Readings may drop or hold steady for the day with highs in the afternoon only in the 40s to around 50° with a low gray overcast as well. Best rain chance is through lunch

Wednesday: Clouds perhaps to start the day then some clearing…highs 55-60°


Discussion:

Typically the fall season is about the ups and downs of temperatures. We will certainly experience that over the next 5+ days. Typically though the ups aren’t as high now as they were in the past…and the lows get a bit lower with each strong cold front…and that continues over the next several months through the winter season before we reverse that trend heading towards the next summer.

Today it’s snowing out to the west of the area. This picture is from Sterling, CO (NE Colorado)…

There were expecting several+ inches of snow in Denver…but unless it really gets going there it will more or less about 1-2″ on the grassy surfaces. Getting snow to stick on the pavement is a tough thing to achieve in October during the day UNLESS it’s pouring down snow…which doesn’t look to be the case as I type this up. West of Denver though in the foothills it is snowing harder and that’s where the better accumulations are occurring. Here is a look towards Louisville, CO this morning…

There’s a winter wonderland for you!

The problem is that with this snow, (heavier and wetter) it weighs down the tree limbs and that creates potential power line issues…

For what it’s worth…the average high in Denver is 68° today…

This mornings weather map shows a developing area of low pressure at the surface that is moving through the central Plains…this should move south of the KC area today. as a result we’ll be more in an east to northeast flow for most of the daytime. I’ve contoured in the isotherms or lines of equal temperatures for you.

During the winter with a surface storm passing down towards I-44, with colder air in the region and moisture available, we’d be talking about either a very cold rain or some snow breaking out right about now. That won’t be the case for today though…as you can see from the satellite perspective…

The nasty weather today at least is towards the western parts of NE and CO…

It’s a sign though that the seasons are changing for sure.

Remember yesterday I mentioned that you’d be able to see the storm system better in the upper levels of the atmosphere today…and that is certainly the case when looking at the water vapor loop.

IF this was the winter season…we’d be getting fired up about the potential with this.

So as this upper level storm comes towards us tonight through tomorrow afternoon…colder air will spread in from the west…with that colder air and the “lift” create by the upper level storm…rain should form overnight into Tuesday and move through the area. It may not be a ton of rain though…and what happens tomorrow may not be overly heavy….but as the moisture wraps around the storm into the colder air that will be in place…lots of showers/drizzle/sprinkles are expected for awhile on Tuesday at least…and that means a raw day on tap with temperatures perhaps only in the 40s in the afternoon.

That moisture may get stuck here on Wednesday for awhile before clearing out.

Then we’re in good shape into Saturday ahead of another cold front that will zip through…there may be some rain with that front sometime later Saturday…then the cooler air comes in on Sunday. we then warm back up next week. Overall rather typical fall weather coming over the next 10+ days it appears.

One other note and a potentially developing weather story as well…big fires last night in parts of CA…including the Napa, CA region. Fueled by winds of 45-80 MPH…things have gotten out of control quickly. I was watching a few minutes of the PGA tournament at Silverado in Napa this weekend. Last night they had to hurriedly evacuate.

Some of the wineries around that area have been affected as well from what I can gather.

Our feature photo comes from Beth Maher out towards Grain valley, MO

Joe

 

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