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Joe’s Weather Blog: Weekend storms (maybe severe) then smooth sailing (THU-10/12)

Good morning…foggy out there to start the day in spots…not unusual for the fall season as the nights are getting longer. Temperatures this morning are cool but seasonable considering the average low is 47°. We have a BIG warm-up coming over the next 60 hours (through Saturday) before another cool shot of air moves in to finish the weekend. Overall typical weather expected for the 10 days in terms of the usual ups and downs of Fall temperatures…the ups though will be noteworthy through Saturday. Storms are likely Saturday night into early Sunday…those will need to be monitored for a severe weather risk, especially for areas from KC northwards.


Forecast:

Today: Becoming sunny later this afternoon. Temperatures may only top off in the 65° range depending on the amount of sunshine we end up getting.

Tonight: Fair skies and not as cool with lows in the 50s

Friday: Windy and warmer with highs into the 80s

Saturday: Partly cloudy with highs into the 80s. Gusty S/SW winds to 30 MPH. The storm risk increases after 4PM or so through 12AM early Sunday

Sunday: Clearing skies after the storms with highs near 60°. Breezy and cooler.


Discussion:

We’re into the heart of our 2nd severe weather season in the Plains. This part of the year though is characterized by occasional risks but not as many as what happened during the spring season. There will be a risk of severe weather over the weekend…and it’s worth monitoring…especially for areas north towards northern MO and NE KS.

Ahead of our next cold front the winds will be increasing from the south…this means that temperatures will be increasing over the next couple of days as well as the dew points. So a more “muggy” feel to the air is coming especially on Saturday. This will set the stage for overnight storms.

As the cold front comes into the area…the cooler air mass will be bumping into the warmer air mass. Timing though isn’t the greatest (at this point). Cold fronts coming into the region later on at night come into a region that is losing it’s instability…and with the sun setting earlier in the evening in mid October (6:40 PM), as opposed to around 9PM in mid June…that’s about 2-3 hours of lessening instability trends.

With all that said though…there will be some decent atmospheric variables favoring stronger storms, and there will be some stronger winds aloft, that could create some gusty winds at the surface when the convection moves through the region…so the potential of some damaging winds should be noted. The SPC has placed the area in a “slight” risk for severe storms.

Now the real front won’t get here till Saturday evening…BUT it will at times meander in the region. As a matter of fact the front itself may move through Friday night…then retreat northwards on Saturday then come through for good on Saturday evening/night allowing the cooler and drier air to move through the region for Sunday.

Next week looks like a phenomenal weather week around the area with warmer temperatures and mostly dry weather. Then the following week will probably see a cooler trend for a few days at least. By the way, through the 1st 11 days of October, temperatures are running more than 5° above average…it’s the 40th warmest start to October in KC weather history.

Right now I don’t see any freezes heading this way for at least 10 days…I saw something somewhat interesting from Climate Central yesterday. They have been tracking the 1st freeze dates for various regions of the country…

In some ways I was somewhat surprised that it’s only been delayed in KC locally by 1 day over the past 40+ years.

Other cities though the differences are much more dramatic. In Boise, ID the 1st freeze has trended a whooping 31 days later over the last 40+ years

OK that’s it for today…NO promises on updated weather blogs for the next few days…

Feature weather photo today comes from the son of Jana Calkins…one of my co-workers at FOX 4. Taken on the 10th

Joe

 

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