Joe’s Weather Blog: Watching Saturday Again (THU-10/19)

Good afternoon…another sensational day out there today with temperatures well into the 70s. Our month so far has been characterized by mild temperatures (again). As a matter of fact our monthly average is running 4.6° above average for October. More warmth is expected over the next 2 days before a return to more seasonable values are likely for Sunday into the early part of the next week.



Forecast:

Tonight: Clear and pleasant. Not as cool with a low in the 50s

Friday: Mostly sunny, followed by some clouds in the afternoon. Warm and windy with highs 75-80°

Saturday: Variable clouds and windy. There may be a few showers around before lunch, but the better storm chances arrive later in the afternoon and through the middle of the evening. Highs again in the 70s. Gusty South winds of 20-30 MPH

Sunday: Sunny, and cooler with highs around 60°



Discussion:

We’re really enjoying some great weather in the region this month. Just enough rain to keep things green…more than enough dry weather and pleasant temperatures to keep folks outside.

The afternoon satellite picture shows the wealth of clear weather out there, and while there are some cirrus clouds south of the area…it’s just wonderful.

Meanwhile the air is warm and dry…dew points this afternoon are nice and low…but will soon start increasing as a more pronounced south wind starts kicking into the area. The following map shows the dew points in GREEN. Notice we’re in the 50s…and even down towards NE TX…the air is pretty dry too…dew points are in the 55-60° range.

It’s really not until you get to the TX Gulf Coast that the dew points are elevated. We’ll need to see IF the models are moving this increased moisture too far to the north too quickly heading into the weekend.

The concern about the weekend is the progress of a cold front that will be the next significant weather change through the Plains. By Saturday afternoon this front will be moving through KS…and heading towards the State Line region.

Capture

As the front moves into the increased moisture…storms/rain should develop with it and move our way.

Some might be wondering IF this could be a repeat performance of what happened last Saturday when there were raging storms (especially in the Northland). There are some parameters that would suggest that strong winds may again be a part of this transition.

There are going to be rather strong winds aloft that will help fuel the storms as they move into the region. Once again, like last weekend) the winds upstairs will be between 50-60+ MPH…that wind, if tapped into by the storms, would again create severe storms in parts of the area.

There is a question of instability however. How warm will we get? Will there be a lot of clouds during the day, slowing down the heating process? Also when will the front get into the area…will it come into a 80° air mass or a 75° air mass? The answers will come on Saturday. Will the storms form far enough towards the NW/W of KC so that when they get here they’re just a bunch of rain and 30-50 MPH wind gusts…this too is possible.

So let’s see how things play out tomorrow…but there will be an increasing chance of stormy weather after 5PM Saturday I think.

Regardless Sunday will be a cooler day…right now though I’m not seeing any widespread frosts of freezes yet in the KC metro area. The pattern next week, favors coolness, as I’ve written for the past 10+ days or so…but also the shots of cooler air come in and out so quickly we need to see where we are with the wind direction situation for the morning hours especially to see is we’re primed for the coolest possible conditions.

The front blowing through Monday afternoon will have some Canadian air with it…so we’ll need to watch Tuesday and Wednesday.

Again all the air masses will be in and out over the course of less than 48 hours so the timing of these transitions are always changing.

In other weather related news…the folks at NOAA have issued their outlook for most of the winter season (December>February). Here are there ideas…

They do their Winter Forecasts based on probability. So what you’re looking at above are the higher/lower chances of a certain outcome whether it be above or below normal temperatures or precipitation. I really don’t like this approach that much but that’s them and that’s the way they do it…but at least you can glean from the temperatures that they expect the highest chances of warmer than “normal” temperatures across the southern part of the country. This is a standard La Nina forecast that they fall back to.

More on La Nina as we head into November…you’re going to hear a lot more on it over the coming 4+ weeks I think.

Our feature photo comes from Lindsey McCartney over towards Claycomo, MO from last Saturday

 

Joe

 

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