Joe’s Weather Blog: Hold on to your hats! (MON-10/23)

Good afternoon…cooler air is spilling into the region as I type this…temperatures are maxing out early this afternoon and may actually drop a few degrees as the afternoon moves along. In addition the winds which were under 10 MPH for the morning are now gusting to close to 30 MPH…and finally there are a few sprinkles and very light showers across N MO moving towards north central MO…it’s an interesting day for us weather geeks…and it’s going to get more interesting over the next 5 days.



Forecast:

Tonight: Partly cloudy skies and cool with lows in the 40° range

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and cooler with highs in the 50s. Windy too with gusts to 25-30 MPH possible. With that wind it will “feel” cooler out there

Wednesday: Cool morning but a milder afternoon with highs well into the 60s. Not as windy



Discussion:

This is one of those days that the weather is interesting to us weather geeks…and not as interesting to most folks. It’s basically because we’ve seen a front come through…but the cooler air has lagged the front and is just now starting to move into the area. Here is the 12PM surface map…the temperatures are in RED…the front is located (at noon) just north of the I-44 corridor. The winds are indicated (in gusts) by the black smaller numbers…there are some 30-40 MPH gusts across the I-80 corridor.

also of note…for the next few hours are some sprinkles/showers moving through the US 36 corridor…

Yesterday’s blog detailed the changes coming for this week…so I don’t want to re-write that so let’s talk more about a stronger front coming our way later Thursday into Friday.

This NEXT front will pack a stronger punch. The reason is that the jet stream will be buckling in a big way…and you can readily see it when looking at the forecast winds up around 30-35,000 feet later this week.

See the big “U” in the Midwest…that’s the “buckle” I’m referring too

That “buckle” will deliver air from far northern Canada into the central US later in the week. That air will be cold(!). Not record breaking…but cold nonetheless.

As a matter of fact this can be seen when looking at the air mass at around 5,000 feet or so. The next map shows the anomalies (the difference between average and reality [in this case the forecast]). Notice where the core of the coldest air is (relative to average for late October)…right on top of the I-35 corridor region around KC! Also the anomalies are in Celsius…the core is some 16°C below average…which is almost 30°F below average at that level!

That’s upstairs…what about where we are…on the surface…take a look.

That’s an air mass running some 20-25° below average at 1PM on Friday…now the reality (model forecast) of things look like this at 1PM on forecast

That’s a pretty chilly air mass…

What I find interesting is what I talked about on the news last night…IF you took this same jet stream configuration and you stuck it in the winter season…how much different would things be…how much colder?

In my opinion…instead of lows in the 20s>32° on SAT and SUN AM…we’d be looking at lows around 0-5° below. IF there was snow on the ground from here northwards in DEC>FEB…we’d be looking at lows some 10-15° below! Obviously that would depend on weird clouds that could be out there…but you get the point.

Our feature photo comes from last weekend when we had big storms in the area. It was taken by Dustin Frisby up in the Northland as the sun was setting!

Nice shot Dustin and thanks for sending it in!

Joe

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