Joe’s Weather Blog: Weekend warmth is not a slam dunk (FRI-11/3)

The weekend forecast is not exactly (from a temperature standpoint) an easy one. Low clouds which created some forecast headaches a couple of days ago…are coming back into the area as I type this from the south and moving northwards. These clouds will be a factor in the potential warm-up on Saturday and then the timing and location of a cold front on Sunday will dictate the temperatures. Some of you may not even get above 55° on Sunday while others may again pop into the 70s. As they say…location…location…location



Forecast:

Tonight: Clouds/some mist/drizzle and perhaps more fog. Temperatures should hold pretty steady in the 40s

Saturday: A conundrum and it depends on the clouds thinning and breaking. We should have a SW wind developing but the winds won’t be too strong so we’ll have to rely on the November sunshine to help break through the lower clouds. Obviously the more sun we get…the warmer potential…the more clouds…the cooler potential. Let’s go with highs in the 50s. Some areas may indeed see 60s IF you get bonus sunshine.

Sunday: A cold front will be moving through the region during the day. We should be mild in the morning…then see a drop off in the afternoon temperatures. Areas from KC Metro northwards will be cool all day long…55°-60 or so. Areas towards the SE of KC…Sedalia/Clinton/Butler/Pleasanton/Garnett…may stay in the warmer air longer…highs for you folks may be well into the 60s or 70s. KC is sort of in the transition. Lets go with near 60° in the AM then dropping to about 55+° in the afternoon.



Discussion:

Once again the satellite picture late this morning is a tell tale shot of the conundrum heading this way…

There is a lot of cloud cover coming up from the south…notice as well this afternoon the sunshine in N MO and NE MO. At 1PM this is impacting temperatures (in RED)…

There will be a smidgen of “lift” coming through tonight…hence the chances of some drizzle or mist or something out there…

Then Saturday will be a day of waiting to see how much sunshine can break through the lower clouds and how quickly that can happen. There is some nice upside IF we can break through the lower clouds…and at times there should be breaks…again it just depends on how big and how long those breaks last.

Then on Sunday the speed of a cold front coming into the area will be the key to the forecast. The GFS was the only “warm” model for the I-35 corridor…and my feeling is that it’s still too warm. As I wrote in the “forecast” part of the blog I think 60° may be about as good as one could hope for the northside of the KC Metro…and I can see an easy path to 50-55° or so Sunday afternoon in the KC Metro…

Areas SE of KC though…highlighted by the map below will be warm! 70s are possible with enough sunshine and I wouldn’t be shocked if, with even more sunshine, if an 80° temperature pops up (towards the I-44 corridor maybe?)

Here is a look at the NAM model showing the highs on Sunday…notice the chill for us in the afternoon

NAM forecast highs on Sunday

The GFS, which has been on the warm side…still has us well into the 60s in the morning…but is cooler in the afternoon as well.

One other tidbit…IF this would all be happening in the dead of winter…when there was snow cover on the ground north of the region…these chilly air masses drifting through would pack quite the punch..and while there’s been an absence of significant storms moving through the area lately…these fronts would have freezing mist/freezing drizzle or patches of freezing rain with them (or snow)…and we’d be fighting just so many clouds…it would not be pretty…actually it would be miserable and a lot colder.

Of some interest is the somewhat “persistence” of this general idea of a pattern. There will be changes along the way obviously but I just say this forecast for the end of November, in terms of trends for temperatures and precipitation and it’s pretty much straight from the La Nina playbook…

It’s been a couple of weeks since we’ve had a decent rain around these parts…and while it’s November now…and between all the clouds and a lowering sun angle and the cooler weather…that isn’t too big of a concern at this point…we could use some moisture. Farmers though are still trying to get their crops taken care of for the winter…so perhaps they wouldn’t mind some additional dry weather to get their fields straightened up.

There will be some opportunities for at least some moisture next week. Nothing looks too heavy but lets watch a system, mainly on Wednesday that could create some rain in the region. That will be tied to a disturbance way up towards northern Alaska today…it will race down the western Canadian coast and move through the NW US early next week and drop into the Rockies later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Our feature photo comes from Michelle up in Smithville, MO…from Halloween with the snow on the flowers.

Have a great weekend!

Joe

 

 

 

 

 

 

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