Joe’s Weather Blog: Clouds…and more clouds…and more clouds (SAT-11/4)

Good Saturday afternoon. It’s gray and cool out there and it’s really not going to change all that much today…or really Sunday either. I was hoping we might see some breaks in the clouds (or at least some thin spots) but that doesn’t look too promising as I type this. That means with little wind to stir the air this afternoon. Temperatures as I type this are in the upper 40s to around 50° and we may be able to warm up about 5° more today. Tomorrow a cold front moving through in the morning will keep temperatures steady or perhaps allow them to fall a few degrees in the afternoon.



Forecast:

Tonight: Cloudy with some fog or mist again possible. Steady temperatures in the 45-50° range

Sunday: Cloudy with the possibility of a few showers. Highs only around 50-55°

Monday: Clouds and cooler with highs in the 40s. There may be some breaks in the clouds every so often, especially in the morning



Discussion:

One of the themes of the blog lately has been how the change of timing with various air mass changes could mess up the forecast from 2-3 days out…let alone from 7 days out. I’m reminding myself of that today because last weekend I thought Sunday, especially, could be a warm day ahead of a cold front coming through towards the end of the day or Sunday night. Well it would’ve been a good forecast BUT the front is coming through 1st thing in the morning now…and that will keep the warmest air towards the south of the KC area. For example towards the I-44 corridor Sunday highs will be in to the 70s. That’s the air that I though would be farther up towards our area…again the winds switching towards the north behind the cold front will keep the warm air farther south.

Here is a look at the NWS forecast for Sunday…I think their too warm for us locally, I’d take off a few more degrees to the KC numbers, but the point is made towards the Springfield/West Plains/St Louis/Cape Girardeau region.

In the heat towards eastern MO and farther east…with a front in the region…there will be the likelihood for storms tomorrow, and those storms may be severe with the potential for hail and also fast moving tornadoes. Parts of the OH Valley area are under an “enhanced” risk of severe storms for Sunday.

So that area of the country will be more Weather Aware tomorrow, hopefully.

Back home, the cold front that will again drag down some more chilly weather. The front is now across the upper Midwest and is moving towards the area at a pretty good clip. It’s impressively cold up across the northern Rockies with some single digits in MT behind the front.

It’s really a shame about today too…the air above us is pretty mild…so any sunshine with some wind would’ve popped our temperatures well into the 60s today…but that warm air above us is a curse right now. We have low level moisture that’s trapped…because of the cool air at the ground. Above us the air is warmer…BUT there isn’t anything to stir the air movement and allow “mixing”. The clouds that are flowing in above the low level moisture are also helping to block out the sunshine above us.

The morning balloon release from Topeka shows this…essentially this lower level moisture is about 4000 feet thick..above that the air is close to about 55°…that’s pretty good for up there…and reveals that we had a “warm day” ahead if other things would’ve worked out.

It’s really overall a fascinating pattern that in the winter would be keeping us on our game…and yet in the month of November continues to be a mostly dry one. I noticed that the GFS forecast for the next 16 days is really dry. Here is the MODEL idea of the total precip into the 20th of November

That’s <1/3″ of moisture. November can be a dry month around here. On average we get about 2.15″ of rain, which is one of our drier months of the year in KC, on average that is. So far we’ve had .01″.

This week overall looks chilly again. Highs average 55-60° for the next 7 days or so…that will be a struggle on most days through Friday and maybe Saturday.

That’s it for today…have a great weekend. Our feature photo comes from Mary Ann Grelinger south of DeSoto, KS taken about a week ago.

Joe

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