Joe’s Weather Blog: How about some good news…I think (TUE-11/7)

Yesterday I described the weather this week as sort of “blah”. Today…it just looks like “blah” out there. A little sun…lots of clouds…chilly temperatures…just blah. Over the past weekend when I created a 2+ week forecast for you…the highlights were a cooler than average week this week…but some milder days heading our way for next week. So as we start today’s blog…let’s focus more on that aspect.



Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and chilly with highs around 45-50°. NE winds of 10-15 mph adding to the chill.

Tonight: Partly cloudy and chilly. With lows in the 20s assuming we have enough breaks in the clouds…30s (like this morning) if it’s too cloudy.

Wednesday: There may be  bot more sunshine. Another coolish day with highs near 50° in some spots with enough sunshine

Thursday: Another shot of chillier air comes into the area…highs in the 40s



Discussion:

We’re in a rut right now with the weather. Today will be the 12th consecutive day with temperatures below average in KC. It won’t get better over the next few days either. During this time of the year the average highs are in the upper 50s and the average lows are in the upper 30s. So it’s been awhile…especially from a high temperature standpoint.

So today instead of talking about the weather for the next few days…let’s take a deeper dive into next week. This is always risky when the seasons are trying to transition but as is typical in the Plains…usually when one type of weather is dominant for awhile (in this case chilly temperatures)…in time there is a snap back…and I’m hoping that happens as we head towards next week in particular.

I can’t promise end to end warmth next week…but at least there should be a few milder days in there…perhaps even above average for a change too!

The reason…some subtle changes in the jet stream above us. Let’s go up to about 30,000 feet or so and let me illustrate this for you…taking a look at NEXT Tuesday morning

The western and central part of the country will be more under a westerly flow of air…this should allow the colder Canadian air, which we’ve been dipping into over the last couple of weeks…to get eaten away on the southern side of those cold air masses. This means that the bulk of the coldest air should get shoved farther towards Canada as opposed to dipping into the Plains…that’s a start at least.

With a lack of big storm systems for the foreseeable future…this means that the air over the Plains will be able to moderate nicely. Of course clouds (which may be an issue) creates problems in mid November as the sun angle gets lower in the sky each week…but at least the air above us will be warming…and with enough sunshine and enough wind…we can start realizing some of the warmer air above us on the ground as well.

Another way of seeing that evolve is by looking at the temperatures about 5,000 feet above us…again this is for the same time frame…next Tuesday morning.

Notice those reds/whites…that’s warm air at that level…granted the warmest is still towards the west of the State Line but at least it’s there…and the colder air (at that level) is more towards the far western and NW part of the country and the SE part of the country.

Also of note is where the coldest anomalies are located…way up towards central and northern Canada. So cold fronts that come through (and there should be some) won’t pack as much of a punch or be long lasting next week…hence the path for sneaking in some warmer days down the road. So how warm can it get? Tough to say…certainly well into the 50s with  upside 60s IF everything (few clouds/enough wind/ahead of cold fronts). If nothing else…we should be more comfortable during the day at least.

Our feature photo comes from Gil Hoag…one of our weather watchers in Bonner Springs

Joe

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s