Joe’s Weather Blog: Getting. So. Old. (SUN-11/12)

Good afternoon…yet another gray day out there and it’s been just that way, mostly, all month long…and we could probably throw in a couple of days in late October into that mix as well. Some good news…early this afternoon a clearing line was moving through NW MO…hopefully we see at least some clearing for awhile before sunset, at least for areas from KC northwards.



Forecast: 

Tonight: Some clearing from KC northwards…but areas south of KC probably won’t clear out. low temperatures tonight will vary from near 32° in the clearer areas to around 40° in the not clear areas. Odds are the KC area will clear out for awhile…then cloud over again in the wee hours of the morning

Monday: I have concerns that the clouds will just come back northwards. So I think another gray day with highs around 50° or so. Some light showers are possible in the evening

Tuesday: Cloudy skies, breezy and it should be milder. There may be some areas of drizzle/sprinkles as well but it should be a milder day with highs into the 50s



Discussion:

Well once again today is a day where the satellite picture tells the weather story for me…and that story is a gray one once again. This really is getting old! There is clearing weather north of 36 highway as of 1PM … we’ll see IF it can make it here…probably will just as the sun is going down…at least from KC northwards…areas farther south…probably not.

So the issue is that the clearing will stop this evening…why, because the push of drier air will be stopping…and the winds will be turning towards the East and SE into Monday morning…well guess where the clouds will be sitting…yup towards the SE of the KC area, and not by much either. So the clouds will just start retreating back northwards towards daybreak Monday…and again more gray skies are expected on Monday too.

South winds on Tuesday will continue to bring moisture (shallow and only a few thousand feet thick) northwards too…so I’m NOT encouraged about Tuesday either.

Weirdly though, with the clouds keeping the lows UP overnight…today will be very close to being an average day from an overall temperature standpoint (high + low divided by 2). Right now that magic number is 46°…depending on where we are before 12AM tonight…if below 44° it will be below average (overall and for the 17th straight day). Monday seems likely to see another run of below average temperatures (overall) but Tuesday we MAY break the streak. The morning lows on Tuesday will be mild (probably well into the 40s) and the highs should be well into the 50s…so its becoming likely that the streak (if it’s still ongoing) will STOP at 18 straight days.

The last time it was this chilly to start the month was November of 1997. I need to check into the details on this but I seem to remember that we were VERY gray for days on end…take a look at the data from NOV of 1997.

It looks like after the 1st we really went into the chilly stuff that month…

Also notice what happened around the 19th or so…we gradually came out of it…and finally during the last week of the month we were out of the colder regime that gripped the area for weeks.

For what it’s worth…the last 10 days of October in 1997 were pretty cool as well with numerous days below average…sort of in the same vain as what happened this past October too. Take a look at the data…

(graphs and data above via Midwest Regional Climate Center)

Can’t blame La Nina that that one…we were actually in the set-up for one of the strongest El Nino’s recorded that winter…in other words the total opposite of what’s happening now down towards the equatorial Pacific region (see previous blogs)

Despite the opposite trends in the Pacific will the same turnaround this month happen again? I think so (more or less). We’re going to be waffling around with some milder days this week…then see a bit of a cool down on Saturday…then recover, perhaps more fully starting in about a week or so.

By the way…that winter, the winter of ’97-’98…we had almost 20″ of snow.

As far as rain goes…to a certain extent the continued mist/drizzle/light rain yesterday sort of added up. I poured about 2/10ths of rain out of my gauge this morning. Considering how dry it’s been…I’ll take that I think.

Our next decent rain chance will come overnight Tuesday into daybreak Wednesday. A weak cold front will be coming into the area…there will be a lot of shallow moisture available and in the area…not sure IF we can get any convection to help with the totals though. I’m not overly excited for it right now. IF we can get 1/10-1/4″ from this during the course of light in and out showers Tuesday into Wednesday early AM…we’ll take it…but yes it means more gray skies for Tuesday.

We should see a LOT more sunshine on Wednesday I think (finally).

I’ve been blogging aa lot about La Nina…and I may try to put a video blog together for you for Monday. I’ll be heading down to Pleasant Hill, MO for their annual Winter Weather Seminar…we’ll I’m sure be talking about La Nina in addition to a lot of other conversations too!

Finally…in case you missed it…Meteorologist Michelle Bogowith did a nice story concerning the upcoming winter as well…she sort of blended some facts and fun into a nice package…check it out!

Our feature photo comes from Sherry Cheek Odell who takes some gorgeous nature shots…

Joe

 

 

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