Joe’s Weather Blog: We’re repeating the same things (THU-11/16)

We’re enjoying quite a bit of sunshine for the 2nd day in a row…and that is something nice for the middle of November. As of 2PM we’re around 50° which is still a few degrees below average and through today we’re still running more than 5° below average for this month overall…



Forecast:

Tonight: Increasing clouds with temperatures initially falling this evening then starting to go back up as the low level moisture fromt he south comes into the region later tonight. By daybreak we should be in the upper 40s. There may be some areas of drizzle/mist/fog forming as well

Friday: Cloudy skies with a few periods of mist/drizzle/light showers. Highs will be closer to about 60-65°. Windy…south winds of 15-25 MPH possible

Friday night: Remaining mild for the evening with falling temperatures towards daybreak Saturday

Saturday: There may be some showers as the front moves through…so falling temperatures for awhile in the morning. The recovering with mixed clouds and sunshine in the afternoon. PM highs 45-50° but it will be rather windy! Winds may gust to 40 MPH+ in the morning before settling down in the afternoon somewhat to 30-35 MPH gusts. It would not shock me if there were some snow flurries out there somewhere on Saturday AM as well.

Sunday: Sunny and not as windy with highs around 50°



Discussion:

For what seems to be the 3rd or 4th time in the last few weeks…we’re seeing another gulf moisture surge of air come northwards and it’s going to be a factor in our weather overnight.

The images above from this afternoon show the cloud cover coming northwards.  We’ve got mostly sunny skies (aside from some higher clouds) but that will be changing as the lower clouds down towards the I-44 corridor in OK stream northwards later this evening. The low cloud deck should arrive along the I-70 corridor before 10PM or so. Earlier south and later farther north.

This afternoon temperatures, under those clouds down south are not too bad. Mostly in the 60s on average…and I’m hopeful we’ll be there tomorrow in between various shots of mist or drizzle.

So moisture from the south will be coming in …temperatures will be increasing through tomorrow evening…and a front will be coming into that moisture early Saturday…

This front should give us at least some rain as it moves through…then Saturday AM chillier air will be rushing in behind the front…and send temperatures down.

Notice the contrast between 10PM Friday evening…

and 10AM Saturday morning

So for sure cooler weather will be coming into the area.

Depending on the situation regarding any leftover precipitation behind the front (iffy) and how fast the atmosphere can chill down…it would NOT surprise me to see some flakes of snow out there…perhaps to our north?

Then Sunday looks fine after a cold start.

Next week, as we head into the Thanksgiving travel period at this point looks uneventful and mostly mild in the Plains. There shouldn’t be any real issues through NEXT Saturday (25th or so) maybe longer. Wednesday looks to be the chilliest (40s) but after a cold start on Thanksgiving we may pop back into the 50s during the afternoon. Obviously this can change.

It looks like the slim chances (on average) of a White Thanksgiving in KC…aren’t going to be there next week for us.

The overall trend though, through NEXT Saturday (at least) is little precipitation through the Plains. Something worth monitoring is the drought report, especially towards the west of the KC region…

Not a lot to write home about YET in KS and NE…but in the last 30 days or so…it’s been really dry out there.

Other tidbits:

So we have that going for us…

That’s it for today…tomorrow I may take a deeper dive into some of the weather indices that we’re watching and how they may play a role into the winter snows…

Janet Smith from Brookside has today’s feature picture…finding the beauty in the gray overcast the other day.

Joe

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