Joe’s Weather Blog: When do we get 1″ of snow? (TUE-11/28)

Good morning…a cold front will be moving into the region today and that will have an effect on the temperature as it won’t be as warm as yesterday. Speaking of which…we ended up missing the record high yesterday (71°) by 2° as KCI topped off at 69°. There were record highs all over the place though through the Plains, the Dakotas, and even into the Rockies. Denver hit 81° which not only was a daily record BUT an all-time November record. That’s more impressive, especially since it happened on the last couple of days in November too! Today won’t be as warm…nor as windy.



Forecast:

Today: Turning cloudy and still mild overall. Highs will be 60-65° around lunch and then drop about 5 degrees later in the  in the afternoon. Clouds will also develop and there may be a few sprinkles or patches of drizzle as well in the afternoon. Not much though is expected. Winds will switch towards the north at 15 MPH in the afternoon as well. It really won’t be a terrible day though overall.

Tonight: It will be colder with lows dropping into the 30s

Wednesday: A more seasonable day with lots of clouds. Perhaps a couple of sprinkles, especially from KC southwards…highs in the mid 40s.



Discussion:

Well you might have heard the wind blowing last night…there were gusts to around 35-40 MPH…those south winds kept temperatures up overnight…only dropping into the mid 50s. Today a cold front will bring some changes to the weather in the region. This morning the front was just towards the NW of KC…and will be moving through the area later this morning and early this afternoon.

Here is the daybreak surface map showing the cold front to the north of the KC area…it will gradually sink southwards this morning…

Notice though the 7AM temperatures in NE…still mostly in the 40s…with some 30s farther to the northwest…that’s really NOT terrible for late November…as a matter of fact the 7AM temperatures are still above average all the way up to the US/Canada border region.

Map via Penn State

I should’ve put in the surface area of low pressure in the map I created above…that is near Wichita this morning…and that in time will help to generate some rain, especially through southern KS into AR over the next 24 hours…

As the front sags southwards today…low clouds should develop with it and behind it…keep an eye on the visible satellite shot this afternoon especially…this image below should auto-update for you as the day moves along.

There is an upper level wave in NM this morning that will be moving towards the I-40 corridor tonight and Wednesday…IF it was farther north, we’d get into the rain…but since it’s pretty far south…we’re on the northern fringe of this. See that “curl” near the CO/NM border…that’s the wave…

Once that wave moves away tomorrow…we should start to see more clearing…and the weather from THU onwards looks rather benign into Sunday.

There will be another rather strong warm-up…I did look into the records for Sunday…which I think are in the mid 70s….we won’t get there…there should be a lot of cirrus cloud cover to finish the weekend…but I think another run to 65-70° is very doable (with wind) on Sunday.

Yesterday’s blog dealt with the reasons for the next stronger change in the weather around these parts…cold air will be on the move next week…I was targeting the change around the 6th…there is some evidence this morning that there will be a downward trend to seasonable around the 4th-5th with the colder stuff coming around the 5th-6th or so…so perhaps a speed-up of a day or two on that. There isn’t any snow on the ground from here northwards and there shouldn’t be any for awhile…so there will be the tendency for the air to modify as it comes southwards…but compared to the run of above average temperatures for the last 10 days or so and continuing into the weekend (mostly) this will be a cold shot that will grab your attention. More or less typical for December with highs at their coldest in the 30° range…and lows closer to 10° I think.

Speaking of snow…and while I’m NOT a fan of posting model forecasts for accumulated snow 10 days out…for the purpose of this discussion I will. It’s basically showing not much at all likely around the immediate region through the 8th of December…especially in the Northern Plains…again allowing whatever cold air to come south…modify over the bare ground somewhat.

Notice that snows in NM and TX…iffy to me…but connected to a possible storm down there later next week.

The EURO model actually has some snow around these parts.. about an 1″ total…from some disturbances in the north flow of air coming southwards when we do get colder next week.

Notice this model does not have the snowstorm towards the southern Plains and southern Rockies.

So when on average do we get our first 1″ of snow. I did some research yesterday and came up with this…

So since the year 2000 there has been an 8 day delay compared to the records going back to the 1880s.

I was then asked about the average LAST date into the late winter or spring of our last 1″ of snow around KC…and in records back through the 1880s…that date would be March 9th…BUT in the data going back to 2000 it’s February 18th…so the date to start the snow (1″ or more) has increased by 8 days…and the date to END the snow (1″ or more) has SHRUNK by 19 days. So the snow “season” in KC has diminished, on average by about 27 days since the year 2000. This is fascinating to me.

Our feature photo comes from Lena Latisha Samuels‎

Joe

 

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