Joe’s Weather Blog: Yes colder…but remember it’s December after all (SAT-12/2)

Good afternoon…the month of December is starting the way November ended…mild again and we’ve got a couple of more days of mild weather coming before we start to see changes…but it’s important to note that the changes are going to occur in a step down fashion…no it won’t be near 70° on Tuesday but it will still be in the 40s…which really is where it;’s supposed to be for this time of the year.



Forecast:

Tonight: Clear skies this evening with some clouds moving in towards daybreak…lows 40-45°

Sunday: A mix of clouds and sunshine, windy and warm with highs well into the 60s. winds may gust to about 25 MPH

Monday: Warm in the morning with cooler air filtering in during the afternoon.. There may be some showers with the transition but I’m not expecting much in terms of rain totals…under 1/4″ if lucky. Highs will be in the 60s with clearing skies in the afternoon and temperatures dropping into the 50s later in the day…overall breezy conditions will persist.

Tuesday: Fair skies and more seasonable with highs in the 40s



Discussion:

It’s really amazing how things can flip around in the world of weather…it’s a rare month that stays cold from start to finish in the Plains…the weather changes too much around these parts and November showed that nicely. From the 1st through the 13th we were below average everyday…a carry over from October. Starting on the 14th though there were only 4 days below average for the rest of the month. Interestingly considering that cold start…and the milder finish…we still ended up more than a degree above average for the month overall.

One thing though didn’t change…the dryness. From the 1st of November through today, this is the 15th driest 11/1-12/2 in KC weather history going back to the 1880s. Sort of interesting…but then again Novembers around here can be dry. The thing is there are no significant storms with appreciable moisture coming our way for the next 10+ days or so, so aside from some minor rains and maybe even some minor (but perhaps impactful) lighter snows…not much overall moisture is likely.

Meanwhile until the colder air gets here…we’re going to stay mild>warm through Monday. Temperatures today are already well into the 50s…and for the next 2 days…60s are likely. The issue for the next two days though will be a return of some gulf moisture streaming northwards. As the air cools down tonight…the clouds will form to our south…and that cloud cover will come northwards Sunday. It may thin out at times…but a pretty gray day is likely. Looking at the surface map at noon…with temperatures shown in RED…it’s pretty mild to the south of here…lots of 60s and 70s down there (impressive for a noon map too).

If you look carefully…there is even a surface low pressure area…can you find it? Here’s a hint…look towards the Red Revier and look for the counter clockwise wind turning…the winds are denoted by the black lines. For example here in the KC area the winds are from the north right now…the opposite barbs show the winds from the south…for example down towards the Dallas, TX area.

So the mild weather stays with us through Monday at lunch or so…then the cold front comes into the area.

As we transition from mild to cooler air…there may be some rain out there…again it hopefully will knock down the dust a bit…a 1/4″ though would be welcome at this point for many areas although those may be high side totals…we’ll probably average less than that.

Now onto the colder weather…yes colder…but really let’s call it seasonable. Seasonable for December are highs in the 45° area and lows in the mid 20s. Tuesday’s highs should be in the mid 40s…so typical for December. Wednesday again will be in the mid 40s…again seasonable. So this is the step-down process that I referred to in the last blog although to be truthful I thought the step down process would take us lower.

The next step down comes on THU>FRI…highs likely to be in the 30s…again not really that unusual for this time of the year but about 10-15° below average. We may be somewhat chillier on Saturday too before perhaps moderating a bit afterwards.

I think what may be happening is that we never get the full blast of the coldest air coming down from Canada…that seems to be more shunted towards the wast of the KC region. Also there continues to be a rather large void of snowcover to the north of here as well. A lack of snow cover allows the colder air coming southwards to modify somewhat and lose it’s “edge” somewhat…so it takes the worst “bite” out of the cold.

One of the “tricks” to the forecast though might be the overnight lows. These will be contingent on clouds moving through and the direction of the wind. Since will be vulnerable to clippers coming down in the north or NW flow aloft…any time we’re ahead of a clipper we’ll see more of a westerly or SWesterly wind flow…this will keep temperatures from tanking. Absent of those two scenarios…we will see lows down to near 10° later in the week.

As far as the snow scenarios go…still not much to write home about. There may be a few flakes here or there later in the week with whatever passes on through the region but anything more than a dusting at this point is tough to come by with such limited moisture around the region.

The bottom line is that we’ll be vulnerable to these shots of colder air masses through the middle of the month. Odds are there will be some above average days the following week (the week of the 11th though so it’s not as if we’re locking into the cold air for a prolonged period of time.

For snow lovers though…the pattern is no good…and it won’t be for more than 10 days at least. Then when the pattern relaxes and we’re subject to disturbances coming to us from the west..we’ll probably be losing the colder air needed. That is speculation but the next 10+ days don’t look favorable for snow of significance. We’ll have to watch these clippers though coming southwards.

IF you want snow…the Great Lakes will see significant lake effect snows crank up…odds are they’ll be measuring the snow by the yard stick in some of the more favored areas.

So the bottom line to the next 5-10 days…a return back to more typical winter temperatures and really not a whole lot more…

Last night the city of Olathe turned on their Christmas lights…I was there and snapped this picture afterwards…have a great rest of the weekend!

Joe

 

 

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