Joe’s Weather Blog: Keeping an eye on Sunday AM (FRI-1/5)

Good afternoon…actually not terrible out there today…we saw a weak push of additional cold air move in this morning…we have a bit of a NE wind…but the dry air and the slowly fading snowcover to the NE of here…has allowed for somewhat better than expected temperatures to encompass the area. We’re going to finish the day with highs around 30° for many areas of the region from KC southwards. The main weather concern is still Sunday AM…up till lunch or so…for the potential of some freezing precipitation and I’ll be watching the road (pavement) sensors to keep track the situation on Sunday morning.



Forecast:

Tonight: Fair and cold with lows around 5-10°

Saturday: Partly cloudy with more high clouds in the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 20s with lower 30s likely south of KC.

Saturday night: Dry and steady to perhaps even slowly rising temperatures. Clouds thicken up

Sunday: the concern is before lunch as some freezing drizzle/mist/rain will be developing and moving through the area. While the amounts in the AM won’t be too large…depending on the road treatments and the pavement temperatures…icy conditions are possible in parts of the area. Particular concerns should be for bridges and overpasses as well as the late morning moves along. During the afternoon the pavement and the air temperatures should be closer to 35°



Discussion:

Time is short this afternoon as I’ll be talking about the ice safety situation on area ponds and small lakes for the evening newscasts.

Yesterday’s blog basically is still valid. The main concern is what happens during the 1st part of the day Sunday. A disturbance will be coming through the Plains states. It’s not overly strong BUT there will be some nice moistening of the atmosphere, that gets to KC first thing in the morning before being shunted away in the evening.

So with the disturbance coming in…with the atmosphere moistening…we should see precip develop as the morning moves along. Temperatures Sunday AM will be around 30° (towards daybreak) and gradually come up as the morning moves along. We should be in the mid 30s or so in the afternoon.

One of the complexities is what is the deal with the pavement temperatures. When I look at them this afternoon…they’re 35-40° thanks to sunshine warming the pavement up nicely. Tomorrow those same readings will again occur in the afternoon BUT once the sun sets…the pavement temperatures should drop back into the upper 20s-30°. Then on Sunday they won’t get as fast of a jump because of the clouds and whatever precip is falling. In other words they won’t have the sunshine to help the cause.

That’s really the issue and one that will have to be nowcasted as the morning moves along on Sunday. When does the precip start…what are the road temps and how long does it take the bridges and overpasses (which will lag the main roads) to pop above 32°. Treatments will help..but I want you to be aware of this…so you’re not caught sliding around. Also watch the sidewalks and the parking lots for additional issues. Many won’t have any treatment on them at all.

Overall the amount of total precipitation from this looks to be under 1/2″…perhaps under 1/3″ for many and even less so across northern MO and NE KS.

Like I said…short update today…sorry about that. We’ll get more into things in tomorrow’s afternoon blog.

Sherry Cheek Odell‎ always takes some great pictures that she sends to me…this is of a sunset in Excelsior Springs from the 3rd

Joe

 

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